141
FXUS63 KAPX 080510
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
110 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT, FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTH OF M-72.
- TEMPS REBOUND MUCH OF THIS WEEK; SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR
SOME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WANING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
THE CENTER FOCUSING DOWN STATE JUST SOUTH OF NORTHERN MI. THUS,
WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING ATTEMPTING TO AID IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO THE FROST POINT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE EAST SOME ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ~8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER MOST AREAS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
FROST POTENTIAL:
ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOL
TEMPERATURES/FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. COUPLE OF COMPETING
FACTORS I THINK, ONE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALLY NEVER
SCOURS OUT. THUS, COOLING COULD CERTAINLY BE STIFLED BY FOG
FORMATION/LOW LEVEL SATURATION (PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
TYPICAL/STUBBORN LOCALES). THAT BEING SAID, WHEN LOOKING AT SOME
PIECES OF GUIDANCE/PROBS (NBM, INTERNAL PROBS) AND THE
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE
A POCKET OF ~32-36F TEMPS CRAWFORD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. EVEN LAST
NIGHT COUPLE OF LOCATIONS DROPPED TO 34-36 DEGREES, SO TONIGHT
~32-36 SHOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. THUS, WILL HAVE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR (KALK, CRAW, OSC SOUTHWARD).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DAY 2-3 (TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY):
CORRIDOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE RUN
SEEMS TO TRY AND SHOVE THIS CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FARTHER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST. THUS,
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DOES EXIST, THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. WHERE THIS MOST
EFFICIENT CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP WILL LIKELY SEE
MODERATE RAINFALL (AS IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE). AT
THIS TIME THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NWS GAYLORD
COUNTY WARNING AREA, INSTEAD SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
POTENTIAL MAY LEAK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MI AS WELL.
DAYS 4-7 (THURSDAY - SUNDAY):
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES BENEATH THESE HEIGHTS ALOFT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS, THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR NORTHEAST LOWER, BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR A LESSER
MAGNITUDE OF COOLING WITH THIS FEATURE (HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE MORE). BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR SOME.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DISCERN ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER IN THE PERIOD BUT LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THERE'S AT
LEAST A HINT OF THAT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING BR / FG (FAVORING CIU, PLN, AND MBL). THIS
WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT 12-13Z THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS
GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 5,000FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SSW WINDS PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20KTS. WINDS TAPER A BIT THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ027>029-
032>035-041.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
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