029
FXUS63 KAPX 090501
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UP MAINLY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLE/SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
WEAK SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS DEEPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA MOVES EAST. THUS, SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL LEAD TO A PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS A RESULT,
ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO THE WEST OF NWS APX COUNTY
WARNING AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN UP,
AND THE CLOSER YOU GET TO WHITEFISH POINT THE BETTER. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS WELL, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON TUESDAY. NEAR SHORE/BEACH PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MI.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL:
BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI AND WESTERN UPPER LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WITH A SMALL PORTION
OF THE AREA SEEING SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS WILL
BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN UP. THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE
WHITE FISH POINT FISHES OUT SOME MODEST RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT ANOTHER
EQUALLY LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO SUGGEST JUST SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING
INTO EASTERN UPPER WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FEW SHOWERS COULD SPILL
SOUTHEASTWARD, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY
EASTERN UP "EVENT" TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS:
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE TO THE WEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BREEZIEST NEAR THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE AND VICINITY. ONLY CONCERN THIS BRINGS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS. A LITTLE BREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL FEEL QUITE NICE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
DAY 2-3 (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY):
GENERALLY QUIET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EXPECT PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE E UP & VICINITY AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND DECAYING MOISTURE LEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUT AREA. A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL HANG OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AS A
RESULT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THUS, SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ADJACENT TO THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE, BUT
STILL QUITE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES OVERALL. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
DAYS 4-7 (FRIDAY - MONDAY):
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE US LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN NORTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE, WITH AN
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THIS FEATURE,
ECMWF AND EPS WANT TO REALLY DEEPEN THE TROUGH NEAR N MI WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MOST OF THE OTHER ENS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE TROUGH STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST,
INCLUDING THE AIFS ENS. THUS, CERTAINLY HEDGING TOWARDS THE LESS
ROBUST SOLUTION. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, JUST TO WHAT DEGREE. IT IS QUITE INTERESTING THAT THE EPS
AND ECMWF AIFS ENS ARE DIFFERENT, WANT TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS IN
THE COMING DAYS, ALTHOUGH LIKE MENTIONED, THE AI MODEL IS MUCH
CLOSER TOWARDS THE NON EPS GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CIU, WHICH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME -SHRA AROUND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SSW WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page