839
FXUS63 KAPX 021651
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER AT TIMES.
- MOST STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISO SHOWER/STORM FRIDAY?
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY, WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS WELL, WITH SFC WINDS VEERING MORE
SOUTHERLY TODAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO "REBOUND" WITH A
HANDFUL DEGREES OF WARMING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A GENERAL
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE
DIFFERENCE PRESENTS ITSELF (REALLY MORE FOR FRIDAY'S FORECAST).
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME ACROSS ONTARIO.
COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN EXTENDED BAND OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID, MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF EASTERN UPPER THROUGH TONIGHT. DETAILS TO EXPAND IN THE
LONGER TERM SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT, WITH NO REAL SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG IN
GUIDANCE, NOR CONCEPTUALLY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
DAY 2-3 (FRIDAY - SATURDAY):
SUBTLE INTRIGUE ON FRIDAY, BUT ONLY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA.
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE POLAR REGIONS, WITH SUBSEQUENT SFC FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THURSDAY NIGHT,
APPROACHING IN SOME DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED, WEAKENING CAPACITY ON
FRIDAY NEAR EASTERN UPPER. THAT BEING SAID, LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. CONSEQUENTLY, NON ZERO CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY TO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FEW CAMS
ARE HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY AT LEAST IN THE SOMEWHAT EXTENDED
RANGE, WITH HREF PROB GUIDANCE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE (~10-25%) FOR
LIGHTNING. SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND FINE TUNE IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
AND CERTAINLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THAT REGARD. THIS FEATURE
AND ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD END UP BEING DISPLACED
MAINLY TO THE NORTH IN ANY EVENT. EITHER WAY, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SOAR DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF
THE PERIOD, WITH LOW TO MID 80S AT LEAST. MEANWHILE, UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM.
DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY):
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS JUST TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPINGES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
TO ~990 MB ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTARIO
AND THUS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MI. CONSEQUENTLY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, FAVORING AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF 75 WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 80S MOST AREAS.
FIRE DANGER RATING VIA GREAT LAKES FIRE AND FUELS SHOWS HIGH TO VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES, INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY TIME FRAME.
SECONDARY TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MID WEEK AND ADVECT A
COOLER AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH PERHAPS A FALL FEEL IN
THE AIR. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL REMAINS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME AT VARIOUS TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. S TO SE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
TURN LARGELY S TO SW THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LACK OF CALMING
WINDS SHOULD STUNT BR / FG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, CARRYING VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AT CIU... BUT OTHERWISE
THINGS REMAIN DRY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page