109
FXUS63 KAPX 031035
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
MAINLY NORTH OF M-32.
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BUILDING TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH. WATCHING FOR
FAVORABLE WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
-TEMPERATURES COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS... MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THEN PROCEEDS TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS FRIDAY AS
MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH
DUE TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCUPYING THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY. A
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TODAY
WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE
DRIVEN SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PRETTY SHALLOW MOIST
PROFILE, BUT DECENT LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE NON-SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS M-32. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF M-28 WITH MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (40-
60%) OF 0.10"-0.25" WHILE AREAS SOUTH CAN EXPECT JUST A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS.
TONIGHT... PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ONLY DELIVER TRACE AMOUNTS OF QPF.
CLEARING CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES TO DROP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE
MID 40S/50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... MIDLEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY RETURNS CONDTIONS
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SUNNY SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
WARMEST TIMEFRAME THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS H8
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 14 TO 16 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE.
ADIABATICALLY DRIVEN HEATING PROCESSES WILL DELIVER HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA HAVE STANDING RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE FORECASTED TO OBSERVE NEAR
OR ABOVE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO
FORECAST THE LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN HIGHS DUE TO LOCAL FACTORS THAT
COULD "MAKE OR BREAK" THE OBSERVED TEMPS SUCH AS LAKE BREEZES OR
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
BIGGEST HAZARD TO FOCUS ON IS INCREASING PRESSURE GRAIDENT FORCE
WINDS BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ESPECIALLY OVER LAND
ON SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO A CONCERN OF POTENTIAL LATE SEASON
FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE EFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING THAT DROPS RH VALUES TO NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF ANY HEADLINES ARE
WARRANTED, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY... PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND BACK TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER (HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF A
HALF INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED. REGARDLESS OF AMOUNTS, THIS SYSTEM
WILL RETURN SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO A DRY FALL SEASON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUTLOOK... SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FROM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DEPARTS TO THE EAST COAST AND ALLOWS FOR MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS TO RISE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SURFACE
HIGHS PRESSURE AND OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO OCCUPY THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
NEAR FREEZING LEVELS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR. HAS BEEN A TOUCH OF FOG THIS MORNING AT APN, BUT THAT WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, WARMER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO INVADE NORTHERN MI. SOME MID-CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN UP (CIU), BUT WE
WILL STAY VFR REGARDLESS. A LIGHT SW BREEZE TODAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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