131
FXUS63 KAPX 060720
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-RAINFALL PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
-COOLER AIR MASS RETURNS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
-ADDITIONAL MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY AND RETURN AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PARALLEL TO MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS TODAY.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...ONGOING ANAFRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY STRATIFORM RAIN
WILL GENERATE A GENERAL QUARTER INCH OR LESS ACROSS MOST PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER. HI-REZ MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
PROFILES WITH DEEPER WARM-MOISTURE LAYERS, SEASONABLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES, AND SOME BUILDING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGHER QPF VALUES. A
GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS, BUT IT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY REGION OBSERVE TOTALS NEAR AN INCH.
TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL CARRY INTO TONIGHT
PRODUCING ONLY A GENERAL TRACE OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING AND TURNING QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS A COOL/CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. FALLING TEMPERATURES VIA COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER WILL KEEP PRECIP FREE CONDITIONS. SUNNY
SKIES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUIET THE COLD SHOCK WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR 0, LOW DEW POINTS, AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP NEAR FREEZING
AT NIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING REMAINS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER WHILE SITES NEAR THE
SHORELINES ALONG WITH EASTERN UPPER SHOULD HAVE MORE PROTECTION FROM
NEAR MARINE ENVIRONMENTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTLOOK...MIDLEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A
SPLIT FLOW SET UP WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE
TOUGHING REGIME EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLY. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NO
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IMPACTFUL WEATHER, BUT
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO THIS (MONDAY) MORNING. SOME LLWS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. -SHRA MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT APN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING INTO APN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA
POSSIBLE WITH CBS AS WELL. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VSBY POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS NOT OFF THE TABLE. MVFR
PREVAILS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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