678
FNUS73 KAPX 061138
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BENZIE RD FIRE...MIDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
738 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE... CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989)732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
LIKELY SUSTAINED A BIT HIGHER (7-12 MPH) THAN YESTERDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. SUBTLE TERRAIN FEATURES TO THE WEST
OF THE WILDFIRE SITE MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED ERRATIC/SWIRLY
WINDS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST, WHICH CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING.
A LOW CHANCE FOR A ROGUE/ISOLATED SHOWER EXISTS THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCES MID-LATE AFTERNOON, BUT WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET INTO TONIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4600 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (102.0-503.0) INCREASING TO GOOD
TO EXCELLENT (502.0-898.0) IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........12 18 25 32 44 56 68 68 68 67
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........ SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20
TEMP............66 68 70 72 74 76 76 76 76 73
RH..............73 70 68 66 62 56 54 54 54 59
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.12 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.4 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 17 17 17 18 20 20 17 15
VRATE KT-FT.....102 118 290 399 503 720 873 898 752 502
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR GD GD EXL EXL EXL EXL GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAIN BECOMING LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...23 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7
TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (65.0-194.0).
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70 74 77 78 80 82 84 86 88 86 84 82
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 0
TEMP............69 67 62 59 59 57 56 54 54 53 51 50
RH..............68 70 84 93 90 96 96 100 100 96 100 96
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW N N NW NW N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 8 7 7 7 7 7 10 12 13 13 12
VRATE KT-FT.....194 99 65 80 72 85 91 136 154 166 166 151
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5300 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (65.0-444.0) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (609.0) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........76 63 56 46 31 16
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 47 54 58 59 60
RH..............96 100 83 67 53 44
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 8 8 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 13 16 16 17
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 700 1400 2800 4400 5300
TRANSPORT WIND..N 12 N 9 N 13 NW 12 NW 14 NW 17
VRATE KT-FT.....145 65 179 323 609 901
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT
FORECASTER...MJG
REQUESTED BY...JEFF VASHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2523014.0/APX
.DELDT 10/06/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VASHERJ@MICHIGAN.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page