025
FXUS63 KAPX 070459
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1259 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH A FEW
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS EACH MORNING
- RAIN COULD RETURN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
A BROKEN BAND OF CLOUDS AND RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MI
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING LIGHTNING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE
TEMPERATURES START TO FALL LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CURRENTLY PLACE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM LUDINGTON
TOWARDS ALPENA. THIS FONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER THIS EVENING, WITH THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS
RIGHT ALONG AND HEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLER TEMPERATURES, NORTHWEST
WINDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTHERN
LOWER TONIGHT. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL REMAIN AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY EXIT TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOLER, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN LATER TUESDAY, AS A SECONDARY
PUSH TURNS WINDS NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS, AS
DRY AIR STARTS TO SETTLE IN FOR LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (A 1035 MB HIGH) WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND
WINDS LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZE CONDITIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. DRY AIR ALOFT, LIGHT
WINDS, AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL DO LITTLE TO STOP EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S, ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE THIS WEEKEND (AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY), HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR BENEFICIAL AND/OR
WIDESPREAD RAINS. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MVFR LARGELY PREVAILING AT APN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH ALL OTHER
SITES IMPROVING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. SOME -RA POSSIBLE AT ALL
NORTHERN LOWER SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BUT WITH RISING
CLOUD BASES, STILL REMAINING VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT APN. HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUD BASES TO LINGER AT APN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS
FROM ANY +RA. EVENTUALLY, VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 12 TO 14Z TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS PREVAILING, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH CU DECK
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...HAD
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