947
FXUS63 KAPX 071032
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-COOL AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY.
-CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT; ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.
-OVERALL DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINOR CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNS THIS FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST TODAY PUSHING SHOWERS OUT OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME,
TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD
RETUNING A COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE
LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE NEAR SAGINAW BAY. MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES BREEZY VEERING WINDS EVENTUALLY
TURNING NORTH BY THIS EVENING. STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE ALONG THE
STRAITS AS CURRENT FETCHING RAMPS UP WINDS TO HEAVY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
SWINGS REMAIN LOW AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAA WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER. EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINES OF NORTHERN LOWER
WILL DEVELOP SOME MARINE DRIVEN CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK SUPPORTING MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO CONTINUE COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCED BY
COOL/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPS LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND RETURNS LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF WEEK STAYS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. OVERALL QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WE HEAD INTO MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LARGELY VFR THIS MORNING, ASIDE FROM SOME BR / FG AT PLN EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF SKC
BUILDING THROUGH THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED (5,000 TO 10,000 CIGS IF
ANYTHING) FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGER THING TO
CONTEND WITH WILL BE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SOME 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO TAPER
RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET, WITH SKCS AND VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... PERHAPS SOME BR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT CONCEPTUALLY WE ARE NOT IN A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR IT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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