811
FXUS63 KAPX 091039
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MI.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES-
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THUS, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME
WARMING WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIVE
DOWN JUST TO THE NORTH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT, IN STEP
WITH ITS SFC REFLECTION. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE AS A RESULT, WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN DECOUPLED ENOUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR COOL TEMPERATURES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD GET QUITE COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
WITH LOW TO MID 30S POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THAT BEING SAID,
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER. SOME POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN A LITTLE MIXED, BUT MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THUS, TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE IN
THE 40S SOME AREAS, AND 30S OTHERS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR 30S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
DAY 2-3 (FRIDAY - SATURDAY):
UPPER LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN LOWER ON FRIDAY, WITH MID LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS, WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STEADIER PRECIPITATION COMING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW, SFC LOW PRESSURE, AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 00Z
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO PAINT A DECENT PICTURE IN REGARDS TO
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES, WITH THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ~NORTHWEST LOWER INTO AREAS WEST
OF 75 IN EASTERN UPPER. A LITTLE LAKE DRIVEN INSTABILITY,
COMBINED WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW, COULD IN
THEORY PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND CLOSE TO THE COAST. DEPENDS ON HOW MANY
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AS WELL, BUT SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BRIEF WINDY CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW AS THEY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN.
DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY):
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER UPPER AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THEN UP INTO PORTIONS OF CANADA. PRECIPITATION WING FROM
THIS FEATURE AND ANY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS MAY TRY TO SPEW
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE,
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ENERGY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR. PRIMARILY SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MAYBE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUD BUILDS LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT S TO SSE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS, GUSTS
UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ097-098.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
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