145
FXUS63 KAPX 100446
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1246 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY
- BREEZY ON FRIDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
NOTE: WITH A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING, WE
HAVE DISCONTINUED FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE SEASON.
PATTERN/SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD, TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA AND THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
FORECAST: SOME DIURNAL CU IS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN UP AND NEAR LK HURON. THAT WILL WANE HEADING INTO AND
THRU THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND, IN
EASTERN AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS MORE SLACK, AND RETURN FLOW WEAKEST, IN PARTS OF N
CENTRAL AND NE LOWER MI. MIN TEMPS WILL BACK INTO FROSTY
TERRITORY IN N CENTRAL/NE LOWER MI...NOT AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING, BUT LOW-MID 30S WILL BE COMMON.
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WILL
START TO THICKEN IN WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS
IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS/DIGGING/CLOSED OFF 500MB
SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL BE OVER OUR HEADS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE
ISN'T MUCH GOING ON WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
RAPIDLY INCREASES HERE FRIDAY WITH VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT. THE MOISTURE TAP/AVAILABILITY ISN'T AMAZING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST, BUT IT'S MORE THAN WHAT IT'S SEEING NOW. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP AFTER SUNSET, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
START DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH PLACES WEST OF A TVC-ANJ LINE. POPS
HERE RAMP UP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND BY DUSK, ALL
SPOTS BUT THE FAR SE WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON, LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN, WITH SPOTTY MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200J/KG. WOULD NOT
TOTALLY PRECLUDE A LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORM. MAX TEMPS UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE STALLS OUT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND; A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN RECENTLY
PROGGED. THIS WILL HELP CONDITIONS IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER.
FRIDAY EVENING WILL STILL BE SHOWERY WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
POSSIBLE. CHANCY POPS WILL HANG ON FROM THERE INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOWER MI. SUNDAY LOOKS QUIET, WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHARPENING OVERHEAD. THAT GETS FLATTENED OUT
NEXT WEEK, WITH US EVENTUALLY SEEING SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE
NORTHERN LAKES. PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ON
MONDAY, WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASING AFTER THAT. SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH TEMPS COOLING AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD THROUGH SUNRISE AS LOW PRESSURE INTRUDES.
LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, LEADING TO LLWS AT
ROUGHLY 1500FT (S AT 25KTS). COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING -SHRA AND DROPPING CIGS
FROM VFR TO MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT N TO NW THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. LOW BUT NON-
ZERO TSRA CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF TVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ323.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...HAD
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