469
FXUS63 KAPX 110606
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
206 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE TODAY, MOST IF NOT ALL WILL BE
DRY.
- SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
- WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. THUS, ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPWARD MOTION WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. IN FACT, UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NUDGING IN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. IT WILL
STILL BE COOL IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION ABOVE
THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, PLENTY OF DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL
CEASE. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW LOW PROBABILITY LIGHT LAKE
INDUCED/ENHANCED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
PERHAPS THATS GRASPING AT STRAWS. CONSEQUENTLY, IMPACTFUL
WEATHER WILL BE NILL TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY TO MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ATTENTION TURNS TO ANY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEST NIGHTTIME COOLING AND GENTLE EAST FLOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FOG IN SPOTS. SOME
OF THE HREF ENS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH MODEST
PROBABILITIES FOR <1 MI VISIBILITY. WE'LL FINE TUNE THIS IN THE
COMING SHIFT. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DAY 2-3 (SUNDAY - MONDAY):
UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS ~NY PA ON SUNDAY, WITH NO IMPACT FOR US UP
HERE IN NORTHERN MI AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF
MAINE AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THUS, EXPECT A FEW BREEZES, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON AND MICHIGAN, AND THROUGH THE STRAITS DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE, PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
TEMPERATURE WISE. HOWEVER, A SFC CYCLONE WRAPS UP ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME WITH A DECAYING SFC
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS, SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
DAYS 4-7 (TUESDAY - FRIDAY):
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS
CANADA AND HUDSON'S BAY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, OR RATHER DIGS
A LITTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
FOR MID OCTOBER DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME LOOKS
LIKE UPPER RIDGING WILL TRY AND KEEP THE PATTERN TRANQUIL
BRIEFLY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY CARVING OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, ITS PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SOME OF THAT
EJECTS EASTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HINT AT THIS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE VOLATILE PATTERN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
LOOKING AT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT HEADING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS, AT TIMES GUSTY TODAY, ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
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