280
FXUS63 KAPX 131802
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING; OTHERWISE
WARM TEMPERATURES OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
-ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
QUEBEC/NEW BRUNSWICK TODAY. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BOARDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY WHILE
WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RETURN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWOODS.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, RETURNING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIP TO PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY. BEST PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINES. BIGGEST STRUGGLE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE FROM
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CUTTING
OFF ANY MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. ONLY A TRACE TO FEW
HUNDREDTHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A FEW PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
WHILE EASTERN UPPER REMAINS BELOW A TENTH INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL. PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERN FLOW, GUSTING TO THE
LOW/MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND CLEAR FROM DRY AIR
QUICKLY BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT,
SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID/LOW 40S FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER WHILE AREAS SHELTERED BY MARINE INFLUENCE REMAIN NEAR
50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
IT) CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PINCHING PGF WINDS DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS TUESDAY BEFORE VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORK
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY EVENING. VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN 10%) OF SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO THE CWA REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE AREA KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY AND AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP (MAINLY WEST OF I-75) WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
ENOUGH RAIN TO BREIFLY WET SURFACES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID OCTOBER WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OUTLOOK...MIDLEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AND DEVELOP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
THIS WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND RETURN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS STRONGEST CONVECTION AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF
MICHGIAN, WITHS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING AROUND A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR THE CWA. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS AS
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL CHANGE OF THE
EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK INFLUENCING RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT MORE
DETAILS WILL COME WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR AT ALL SITES CURRENTLY. WINDS GENERALLY S/SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS AT A FEW TERMINALS. A WEAK FROPA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MI TODAY, BRINING SCT-BKN
CIGS OF 4 TO 7 KFT AND VCSH FOR TERMINALS OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT (KCIU/KPLN). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NE/N FROM 03 THRU 10Z. LOW CHANCES FOR CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO SHRA. SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT-BKN AS CIGS AROUND 10 KFT OR
ABOVE MOVE IN BEHIND THE FROPA. LOW CHANCES FOR BR/FG TONIGHT,
HOWEVER CHANCES COULD GROW IF RAIN OVER PERFORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...ELD
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