922
FXUS63 KAPX 281027
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
627 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- COOLER WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
MAINTAINING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH PERHAPS SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TODAY. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST, KEEPING
A LIGHT BREEZE IN PLAY THAT MAY MAKE IT FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER AT
TIMES, BUT WILL OVERALL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
50S ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
SLOWLY, THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO FULLY CALM. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL AS SHARPLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
COULD (LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS), WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY,
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
LARGELY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A NORTHERN TOUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER AND USHER
IN A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BULK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO EDGE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER LATE THURSDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT (WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROFILES AS EASTERLY WINDS USHER IN DRIER AIR WHICH COULD
HINDER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT).
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY IN LAKE EFFECT
FAVORED AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR
LIMITED, BUT CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 20S/
30S. THE COOLER, UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WILL KEEP
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED BR/FG DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
AWAY FROM TAF SITES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AS
DIURNAL MIXING ENSUES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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