408
FXUS63 KAPX 281834
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
234 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- COOLER WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS FOR THE NORTHERN LOWER AND FAR EASTERN U.P.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC. CLOSER TO HOME, BREEZY ESE FLOW HAS KICKED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT, WINDS BEGIN
TO SLACKEN SOME, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO A FULL CALM, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR,
HOWEVER, UPSLOPING MAY HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OR FREEZING FOG MAY BE
SEEN AGAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK, SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW SINCE BREEZY WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER POTENTIALLY HINDER LOW LEVEL FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z HREF, WHICH PAINTS A <20% CHANCE FOR SUB 1 MI
VIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR N LOWER.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE, WHICH BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL
HAVE BEEN PINCHED OFF BY A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A WEAK
RETROGRADING VORTICITY LOBE. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE WILL BE
SEEN WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AMIDST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND E WINDS SLOWLY BACKING NE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MILD WEATHER HOLDS FOR ONE LAST DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE A PATTERN
CHANGE BRINGS POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY SENDING A SFC LOW NORTHWARD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS MTNS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY. SYNOPTICALLY FORCED PRECIP MAY BARELY SKIRT LAKE HURON
AND NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL ANTECEDENT DRY AIR THAT MAY CURTAIL
PRECIP ALTOGETHER. AS THIS SFC LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY, LAKE EFFECT RAIN POPS WILL BE
ON THE RISE AS NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN COOLER 850 MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 0 TO -4C. THIS BECOMES MORE FAVORED IN THE NW WIND
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 20S/ 30S. THE
COOLER, UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SAVE
FOR SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR LAKE HURON, INCLUDING AT KAPN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT GUSTING TO 18-20 KT AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KT AFTER 00Z. EXPECT ENOUGH
WIND TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ALONG THE
LAKE HURON SHORELINE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING, BUT LEFT KAPN VFR AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341.
SHORT TERM... MQT BW
LONG TERM... MQT BW
AVIATION... MQT CB
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