945
FXUS63 KAPX 291008
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
608 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COOLER WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO END THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
MAINTAINING QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A MIX OF SUN AND
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUING TO SLACKEN, PROVIDING LIGHT EAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/ CALM UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED INTO THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST
PART OF THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY WILL LARGELY RANGE IN
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A NORTHERN TOUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OUR CURRENT
STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER AND USHER IN A COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO EDGE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT
(WILL HAVE TO WATCH PROFILES AS EASTERLY WINDS USHER IN DRIER
AIR WHICH COULD HINDER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT).
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY IN LAKE EFFECT
FAVORED AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR
LIMITED, BUT CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 20S/
30S. THE COOLER, UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
CALM WINDS ACROSS LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS LED TO
PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS --
ALBEIT AWAY FROM TAF SITES. SOME SCT/BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2KFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. THAT
SAID, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO
WEAK/CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, BUT RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE 12Z TAFS AT THIS TIME.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page