108
FXUS63 KAPX 300602
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STILL EXPECTED TO TURN A BIT COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NO SIGNS OF ANY
APPRECIABLE COLD WEATHER AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
YET ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL, WITH ELONGATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA
BRINGING MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHWOODS. AND MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, STILL SEEING SOME
SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS ROTATE BACK WEST OFF THE BIG WATERS...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPERIENCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO
TRANSPIRE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WHAT HAS BEEN DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING TENNESSEE VALLEY CENTERED LOW PRESSURE TAKES THE TURN
NORTHEAST, RUNNING UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...REACHING VICINITY NEW
ENGLAND BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH EARLIER MENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH ESSENTIALLY FOLDING BACK SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MINIMAL...WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS:
DESPITE LARGE SCALE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE, FOLDING OF THAT SURFACE
HIGH AND NOW A WELL AGREED UPON EAST ADJUSTMENT TO THAT TENNESSEE
LOW WILL KEEP NORTHERN MICHIGAN DRY RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL
EXPECTING A GOOD BIT OF CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES RESPONSE TONIGHT WITH THOSE
CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EASILY LOOKING AT
SEVERAL OF OUR TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLDER LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN
DOWN INTO THE 20S. OF COURSE, READINGS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
"WARMER" AS ONE APPROACHES THOSE BIG WATERS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY A BIT LESS AGRESSIVE WITH
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
STILL LOOKING AT RATHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING SLIDING EAST THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH ATTENDANT COOLING HELPING DRIVE AT LEAST SOME LAKE
RESPONSE. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY EXIT
STAGE RIGHT BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING UP
A MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.
DETAILS:
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION NOW APPEARS VERY MINIMAL HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH BIFURCATION OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND WEST. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES WITHIN
PASSING TROUGHING SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE RESPONSE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOW
APPARENT LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION/FORCING SHOULD
DEFINITELY HELP THROTTLE BACK ON ORGANIZATION OF LAKE-INDUCED
SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST, TARGETING MORE COASTAL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY FOR BETTER SHOWER CHANCES. AGAIN, NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING TOO SUBSTANTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER, BUT
DEFINITELY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE END OF OCTOBER/START
OF NOVEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FRIDAY COOLING TO
THE 40S BY SATURDAY. PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING LAKE SHOWERS INTO
SUNDAY, BUT AGAIN OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR A FASTER EXIT OF TROUGHING
AND RATHER QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION. WE
SHALL SEE.
NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS AGAIN TRENDS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SHUNTING ANY REAL COLD AIR
BACK NORTH INTO CANADA. MAY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH EVIDENCE OF A QUICK MOVING WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF
NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE PROMOTED PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN -- INCLUDING MBL. DROPS TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FG/BR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. PRIMARILY NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ARE IN
STORE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DJC
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