446
FXUS63 KAPX 300644
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NO SIGNS OF ANY
APPRECIABLE COLD WEATHER AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE SUBSTANCE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY, THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
EVEN WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE, IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
50S AND LIGHT NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OR
EVEN THICKEN A BIT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOW MUCH SKY COVER WILL HAVE A BIG SAY IN OVERNIGHT LOWS, MORE
CLOUDS KEEPS READINGS NEAR THE LOW TO MID 30S, WHILE AREAS THAT
MANAGE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD DIP A BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS AGGRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, FAVORING MORE
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVERALL. THAT SAID, SOME COOLER AIR
WILL STILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST A LIGHT
LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN DECENT OVERLAP OF COLD ADVECTION AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH LIMITED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
WEEKEND, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
USHERING IN A RETURN TO MILDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS EARLY ON,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUN AND A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (COOLEST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS).
HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING BRIEF,
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME--
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE PROMOTED PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN -- INCLUDING MBL. DROPS TO
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FG/BR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. PRIMARILY NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ARE IN
STORE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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