591
FXUS63 KAPX 301031
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NO SIGNS OF ANY
APPRECIABLE COLD WEATHER AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE SUBSTANCE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY, THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
EVEN WITH MORE FILTERED SUNSHINE, IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
50S AND LIGHT NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OR
EVEN THICKEN A BIT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOW MUCH SKY COVER WILL HAVE A BIG SAY IN OVERNIGHT LOWS, MORE
CLOUDS KEEPS READINGS NEAR THE LOW TO MID 30S, WHILE AREAS THAT
MANAGE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD DIP A BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS AGGRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, FAVORING MORE
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVERALL. THAT SAID, SOME COOLER AIR
WILL STILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST A LIGHT
LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN DECENT OVERLAP OF COLD ADVECTION AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH LIMITED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE, ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
WEEKEND, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
USHERING IN A RETURN TO MILDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS EARLY ON,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUN AND A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (COOLEST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS).
HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING BRIEF,
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE
HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME--
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
PATCHY FG/BR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. MBL
HAS BEEN THE ONLY IMPACTED TAF SITE SO FAR, BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AT PLN IS POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP MENTION INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN NEAR TVC/GRAND TRAVERSE BAY LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO
TVC LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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