610
FXUS63 KAPX 310514
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/FRIDAY NORTHWEST LOWER.
- LAKE INDUCED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.
- PASSING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND BREEZY WEATHER ON
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA TO START THE FORECAST...UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY HELPING KICK HURRICANE "MELISSA" OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS. WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS NORTH FROM
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FAST MOVING PACIFIC-ORIGIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/PRAIRIE PROVINCES. STRONG WESTERLIES
(180+KTS) SPAN MUCH OF THE PACIFIC BASIN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FEEDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...SHARP MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE RUNNING NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DIVIDING MOIST AIR TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR
TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...1002MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...WITH A 1006MB LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY. INCREASING DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PULL COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS MICHIGAN
AS A RESULT. SO WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL
PROBABLY NOT WRAP BACK INTO MICHIGAN...INCREASING OVER WATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR BELOW -4C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY AND THEN PIVOT SOUTHWARD
INTO IOWA. IN THE PROCESS THIS WILL PUSH A PV ANOMALY NORTHWARD
INTO WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/FRIDAY NORTHWEST LOWER:
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY
DEEPENING CBL (PROBABLY AIDED BY AN AXIS OF CHANNELED VORTICITY
RETROGRADING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER LAKES). LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO CLOUD
COVER WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER WEST...WHILE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEWST RESULTING IN A LONGER EFFECTIVE
FETCH AND MORE CLOUDS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER (CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST LOWER MORE LIKELY TO BE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WRAPPING BACK
IN FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST). WHILE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY TO BE AROUND -5C IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE (MOSTLY LIQUID) HYDROMETEORS PROBABLY
CLOSER TO AND BEYOND MIDNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION SOUTHWARD.
THIS SAME BASIC SET UP WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWER CHANCES AROUND AND WEST OF WHITEFISH BAY. THINKING WE WILL
SEE MORE SUB-50 DEGREE HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL IN PLACE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA SATURDAY...AND THE SECOND LOW
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA ON FRIDAY WILL WIND UP OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LEADING
EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC JET WILL PUNCH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES THE GREAT LAKES IN A BIT OF A COL REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITHIN A BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH MORE CONSOLIDATED
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING PACIFIC JET. THIS UPSTREAM
JET WILL BUCKLE AND PUSH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE (PACIFIC DOMINANT)
FLOW INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW REACHING
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
DIG SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE SPLIT IN THE FLOW
PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SOME
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS IMPACT THE UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN.
DAYS 2-3 (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): FLOW WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT
STILL QUITE COOL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING AROUND -4C.
WEAKER FLOW MAY TEND TO PUSH ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE FRIDAY
NIGHT (LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT). DID BUFF UP POPS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SREF GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS NOT SURE HOW FAR INLAND THE
SHOWER THREAT WILL EXTEND. A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW SNUCK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY BUT ANY LINGERING LAKE
CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO GET SHOVED BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
DAYS 4-5 (MONDAY/TUESDAY): A MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...THEN SHIFT TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
TUESDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY THOUGH IT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOME LONG FETCH LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION
INTO EASTERN UPPER.
DAYS 6-7 OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK (4-8
NOVEMBER) IS TRENDING WARM AND DRY...THOUGH THAT MAY BE BETTER
SUITED TO THE LATTER HALF OF THAT OUTLOOK WITH INDICATIONS OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE REGION DURING
MIDWEEK. MAY WARM UP IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MBL AS
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED IN -- BUT
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH WEAK/CALM WINDS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO FILL IN TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING -- ALTHOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS TIME FOR
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CIGS LOOK TO LIFT SOME
LATER FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LHZ347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...DJC
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