143
FXUS63 KAPX 311112
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
712 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES AND BRISK WINDS TODAY.
- LAKE INDUCED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- RAIN AND BREEZY WEATHER TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INFLUENCING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TODAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS, PULLING COLDER LOW-
LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO
THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES INCREASES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -4C
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA AND
PIVOTING SOUTH INTO IOWA WILL PUSH A PV ANOMALY NORTHWARD INTO
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION
AXIS. THE RESULT IS A COOL, UNSETTLED DAY WITH CLOUDS FAVORING
NORTHWEST LOWER AND FILTERED SUN ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH
PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S, WITH A FEW LOW 50S POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING CLOUDS AND A
FEW LINGERING LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS AROUND, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
LAKES AND ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND IN AREAS WHERE SKIES THIN SUFFICIENTLY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SATURDAY REMAINS COOL UNDER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
INDUCED SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AS COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS
MAINTAINS INSTABILTY. HIGHS REMAIN INT HE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50,
COOLEST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY BUT ANY LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION
WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK REMAINS LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL IN THE COMING FORECAST
CYCLES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TAF SITES, BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE STRAITS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN,
ESPECIALLY WHERE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED AROUND GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY AND AREAS SOUTH. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS THAT MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL AT TVC AND MBL FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON -- AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT MBL. BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page