833
FXUS63 KAPX 311828
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
228 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- LAKE INDUCED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- PASSING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND BREEZY WEATHER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO THAT THROUGH SATURDAY. COUPLE OF UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURES OF NOTE -- ONE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THE SECOND MAKING
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
AT THE LOW LEVELS, CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TO BE THE RULE IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED NORTHEAST LOW. AS A RESULT,
LAKE INDUCED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE -- ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED TO AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS WEAKENING FLOW AND
POTENTIAL LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY TEND TO PUSH ACTIVITY TOWARD
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINES.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS OVERALL THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO EXPAND A TOUCH
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS LARGELY
15-25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET LEADING TO APPARENT TS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S THROUGH THIS EVENING'S TRICK-OR-TREAT TIMEFRAME.
BY LATER TONIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FOCUS SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. THAT SAID, FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE
TO LINGER INLAND, SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN, GIVEN COOLING
SURFACE TEMPS AND H8 TEMPS AFTER 03Z RANGING FROM AROUND -4C NEAR
THE M-32 COORIDOR TO -6.5C ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POPS FOCUSED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY
CHANCE FOR WET SNOWFLAKES INLAND LARGELY ENDS BY MID-SATURDAY
MORNING AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
PATTERN FORECAST: BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT, WITH STRONG WESTERLIES EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL LOCALLY ON SUNDAY, BUT THAT
UPSTREAM JET LIKELY TO BUCKLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, PUSHING STRONG
HEIGHTS FALLS INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
MORE ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME WITH
POTENTIAL LATE WEEK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF WARM UP IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TREKKING ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
DAY 2-3 (SUNDAY - MONDAY): WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY. LARGELY A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR MANY,
ALTHOUGH WHAT LINGERING LAKE INDUCED ACTIVITY EXISTS WILL
LIKELY GET PUSHED BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER/TIP OF THE MITT.
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD/SYNOPTIC RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DAY 4-7 (TUESDAY - FRIDAY): MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER
FAST-MOVING SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE NATION'S
MIDSECTION BRINGING MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TAF SITES LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, PARTICULARLY TVC
AND MBL, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST LIKELY TO HOLD VFR IN
APN. SHRA TO REMAIN CONFINED TO MBL AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT,
TVC, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT TVC AND
MBL... WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED UNDER
MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. N TO NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT APN, WHERE SOME GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
APPROACHED 25KTS. ANTICIPATING WINDS TO TAPER OFF QUITE A BIT
THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
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