126
FXUS63 KAPX 031740
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY.
- DRIER AND MILDER TUESDAY (POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS?)
- ACTIVE WEATHER LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NW US WITH 160+KT UPPER JET PUNCHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SW. NORTH OF THE STRONG JET LIES LONGWAVE TROUGHING
AND ABUNDANT PV MAXIMA...A COUPLE OF WHICH ARE DRIVING GENERALLY
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED PV
MAXIMA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST; STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT (50-60KTS AT
850MB) KEEPING WARM ADVECTION IN PLAY...AND TEMPS LARGELY STAYING
STABLE OR SLIGHTLY RISING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
JAMES BAY DOWN INTO WESTERN IA...AMID A MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PWATS
RANGING FROM 0.38 AT APX FOR THE 0Z SOUNDING, TO 0.74 AT MPX). AREA
OF RADAR RETURNS IN THE FORM OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY INTO NORTHERN LAKE MI...AND WESTWARD THROUGH WI AS OF 6Z...WITH
NW-SE ORIENTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT ATTENDANT FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY BETWEEN 5-9AM, FROM NW
TO SE...WITH A RUMBLE OF TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EUP. EXPECT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO WORK
IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BRIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH
SMALL CHANCES AT BEST). EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO HANG ON THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM STILL
TIGHT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE MORE WNW TO NW BY LATE IN THE DAY.
RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...STAYING PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY
KEEPING THINGS FROM TOTALLY QUIETING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:
WINDS TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT BREEZY WNW/NW WINDS,
REMAINING SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS FOR MOST...GUSTING UP TOWARD 30KTS
AT TIMES, THANKS TO WINDS AT 850MB STAYING ON THE STRONGER SIDE ON
THE BACK OF THE LOW (30-40KTS). COLD ADVECTION (ALBEIT NOT
NECESSARILY "COLD" THIS TIME AROUND) TYPICALLY FAVORS BETTER
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...AND THINK THE SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE ON BOARD
WITH THIS IDEA...THOUGH SOME PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE
HESITANT, SAVE FOR THE SOO AND APN WHICH SHOULD SEE THEIR WINDS PEAK
TOWARD LATE MORNING/MIDDAY OR SO. DO NOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBTLE INVERSION IN GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS THAT COULD CAP MIXING AROUND
925MB OR SO, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR TAPPING INTO
THOSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...THOUGH 925MB WINDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 30-
35KTS AS WELL. THINK THE BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED GALES WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS, ESP NORTHERN LAKE MI/HURON WHERE THERE IS LESS FRICTION
FOR W WINDS TO DEAL WITH...AND THESE COULD BLEED INTO SOME OF THE
LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, PARTICULARLY FROM M-72 NORTHWARD
TO THE STRAITS...AND GENERALLY WEST OF US-131.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
DAYS 2-7 (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH
TUESDAY AS UPSTREAM FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...WITH
SOME PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN US, COUPLED WITH A SUBTLE PV MAXIMUM CROSSING THE
NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA, WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME
QUESTIONS YET AS TO HOW STRONG AND HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH. DOES APPEAR WE WILL GET SOME STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY?...AGGRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
WITH THE INCOMING UPPER JET SHOULD SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF DRYING,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS (BELOW 500MB) TODAY, ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM OVER WI...AND EXPECT THIS AIR MASS TO PERSIST INTO OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S,
IF NOT EVEN A TOUCH COOLER. COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THINK MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RHS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 25-35 PERCENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE PREVAILING W FLOW SHOULD AID IN DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING
ON A LOCAL SCALE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, THINK OUR
WINDS WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCES FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
SHOULD BE OVERHEAD, AND WILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10KTS,
GUSTING CLOSER TO 15-20KTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THOUGH IT
APPEARS BETTER WINDS SHOULD DEPART AFTER MIDDAY AS A BIT OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SWINGS IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DAYS 4-7 (THURSDAY-SATURDAY)...
PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE WEEK...WITH PACIFIC
ENERGY DRIVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST
GOING INTO LATE WEEK...WITH BROAD TROUGHING SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING/POSITION/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
LATE WEEK...DO EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/MS VALLEY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER. (UNLESS THE
LOW ENDS UP TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...THOUGH ATTM, THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS.) BEHIND
THIS...WILL LOOK FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO END THE WEEK...AS WE REMAIN
LARGELY ACTIVE. QUESTION ATTM IS HOW COLD IT WILL GET LATER THIS
WEEK...AS IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD END UP COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW, PARTICULARLY AFTER DARK. LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS ACROSS A COUPLE DIFFERENT MODELS SEEM TO SIGNAL
TRENDS FOR A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP THE COLD AIR FROM DIGGING QUITE AS DEEPLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER CLEARS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS PRIMARILY REMAIN FROM THE WEST WHILE SLOWLY
CALMING OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...SJC
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