780
FXUS63 KAPX 060530
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1230 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING COLDER TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
- MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SHARPLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WORKING STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA, TAKING THE
STEADY RAIN QUICKLY ALONG WITH IT. DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY
EAST BEHIND THIS DEPARTING RAIN, WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT LAKE INDUCED
SHOWERS ROTATING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS USHERING IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
SOME AREAS ALREADY GUSTING WELL OVER 25 MPH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, SETTING UP SOME LAKE RESPONSE IN THE PROCESS. FLOW REGIME
REMAINS A FAST ONE, WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LAKE SHOWER EVOLUTION AND WHAT FORM THOSE SHOWERS WILL TAKE TONIGHT.
DETAILS:
EXPECT LAKE SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS H8 TEMPERATURES DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ZERO...SETTING UP A MORE THAN ADEQUATE OVER-WATER THERMAL
GRADIENT. BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS QUICKLY
EXITING, WITH MOST ORGANIZED AND DEEPEST MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT BEST RESPONSE OFF THAT LAKE, AIDED BY
RESPECTABLE INVERSION LEVEL HEIGHTS UP TO THE H7 LEVEL THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE OFF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH BOTH A BIT LOWER CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTHS AND MORE DISJOINTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. MELTING
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK AWAY FROM THOSE BIG WATERS, REACHING
SUB 1KFT LEVELS BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SNOW AT LEAST MIXING IN WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES, WITH ALL
SNOW AT TIMES A REAL POSSIBILITY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION, BUT WOULDN'T RULE OUT
SOME WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE FAVORED
INTERIOR LAKE PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE INTERIOR
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AS RISING HEIGHTS LOWER
THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO THIN.
PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SPREADING OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE ABOUT RIGHT ON PAR FOR WERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
AGGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL SEND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NOW BOTH WELL ADVERTISED AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTED LONG-
WAVE AMPLIFICATION SET TO TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER, CARVING OUT DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST VISIT OF
SOME TRUE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION
(SNOW AMOUNTS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND
DISORGANIZED WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
TROUGH DEEPENING KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WAVE SET TO CUT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO. OVERALL TRENDS IS FOR MAIN IMPACTS WITH THAT LEAD
WAVE TO LARGELY MISS US OFF TO THE SOUTH (COULD BE AN INTERESTING
EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN). LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES TAKE CENTER
STAGE UP THIS WAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT (H8
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER NEGATIVE TEENS)
SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT AND PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PRIMARILY NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER...RELEGATING BEST LAKE SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN..AS WELL AS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS COMES TO PASS,
THIS WILL PUNT BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WEST OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN,
WITH THE FOCUS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE CENTERED IN THE
HIGHLANDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. WILL
DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ANY MORE OF A PURE NORTHWEST
COMPONENT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WOULD TARGET MORE OF OUR
TRADITIONAL LAKE PRONE AREAS....WITH A TOO NORTHERLY COMPONENT
LIKELY KEEPING BEST SNOW POTENTIAL LARGELY OUT OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER (PERHAPS THE HIGHLANDS OF LEELANUA COUNTY?). MUCH MORE
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BY
SUNDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S AWAY FROM THOSE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER.
GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT TROUGHING STEADILY EXITING THE REGION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY ENDING THE LAKE
PROCESSES AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME MODIFICATION BACK INTO THE
NORTHWOODS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRAY MVFR CIG/VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE IN DECAYING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. LLWS WILL
RAMP UP LATE THU EVENING AT TVC/MBL, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
WNW TO W BREEZES, A TOUCH GUSTY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345-346-349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DJC/JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page