596
FXUS63 KAPX 061921
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND OF WIND-DRIVEN SHOWERS (OF THE LIQUID VARIETY) ARRIVES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- SHARPLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
- SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
RAPID FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, MADE SO BY ELONGATED
PACIFIC JET CUTTING ACROSS THE CONUS. NORTHERN MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
IN A REPRIEVE BETWEEN SYSTEMS, WITH FAST MOVING DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWOODS. BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY NOTED RACING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE AND
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SHOWER EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE BIG WATERS, WILL ALSO NEED ADDRESSING.
DETAILS:
RATHER PERFECT JUXTAPOSITION OF RESPECTABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A
COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER FORCING (SURFACE CONVERGENCE TOPPED BY MID
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS) SHOULD DRIVE
A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD NEGATE
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY RECEIVING NEAR
OR UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE NOTED, BUT
THINK ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL LARGELY REMAINS OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL DEFINITELY KEEP IT MILD
(FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT LEAST) WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.
MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH ARRIVAL OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW MORE SHOWERS/AREAS
OF DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE FAVORED LAKE
EFFECT PRONE AREAS. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY SWING AROUND TO THE
WEST. ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIVEN BY COMPLEX WAVE INTERACTION...WITH LEAD
WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS STRAIGHT SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO. TROUGHING LOOKS TO REACH MATURITY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
SUPPORTING A DIRECT AVENUE FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO DROP DIRECTLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE THEREAFTER, FORCING A STEADY EXIT OF THIS TROUGHING AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOKS LARGELY UNEVENTFUL WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRYING THROUGH THE VERTICAL SPREADING OVERHEAD. SUPPOSE
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
COOLDOWN DOES START ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MIDDLE 40S.
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS CENTERS ON THE INTIAL LOWER
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WAVE. ALTHOUGH A FULL GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH
SHOWS DEFORMATION DRIVEN SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN, DPROG/DT'S OF THOSE SAME MODELS SHOW A STEADY SOUTH
DRIFT WITH BEST FORCING...SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE MORE OF A
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN CONCERN. GIVEN LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES, WILL SIMPLY UTILIZE THAT BLEND METHODOLOGY FOR NOW,
WHICH DOES SHOW AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT PERHAPS
BRINGING A LITTLE MORE SNOW DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. AGAIN, WOULD NOT
BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF SYNOPTIC SNOWS MOUNT TO VERY LITTLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
ATTENTIONS TURNS TO LAKE PROCESSES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLDEST AIR
YET THIS SEASON DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG WATERS. LAKES NO DOUBT
WILL BE ACTIVATED AS H8 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
BELOW ZERO...SETTING UP AN INTENSE OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT.
ARRIVAL OF THAT SOUTHWARD DIVING ONTARIO WAVE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT AS WELL. AGAIN, AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, QUESTION IS ONE OF
WIND DIRECTION. POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING
ONLY ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY. WITH ALL THAT SAID, LOOKS AS IF THE
PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT HAS A VERY
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS WOULD KEEP BEST LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWS WEST
OF OUR EASTERN UPPER COUNTIES, AND RELEGATE BEST LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWS
NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. MOST EDUCATED GUESS FOR
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS IN THE ELEVATED INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF LEELANAU COUNTY, WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IF
EVERYTHING LINES UP CORRECTLY. ACTUAL SHORELINE AREAS OF LEELANAU
COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT LAKE
MODIFICATION...PERHAPS SUPPORTING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
AGGRESSIVE MELTING AT THE SURFACE. AS MENTIONED, WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING, WHICH MAY FORCE A MORE
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH WINDS INTO THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AS ONE CAN SEE,
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH FORCED FORECASTED SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE THAN LIKELY NOT VERIFYING. WILL SIMPLY CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UTILIZE OUR GRAPHICS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS TO
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO.
OF MUCH MORE CERTAINTY IS THE ARRIVAL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S.
GUSTY WINDS WILL OF COURSE MAKE IT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.
STILL APPEARS PATTERN RELAXES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING GETS PUNTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND
END ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOW CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY DECREASE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT
AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN TIMING
BEGINNING AROUND 6 AND 9Z FOR LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TERMINALS
(INCLUDING KCIU), BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z FOR KAPN. -SHRA CONTINUES AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF -RA/RA MOVES
EASTWARD. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, IFR POSSIBLE KPLN AND KCIU. WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT, WITH WS OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND BREEZY TO
WINDY SFC CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JLD
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