137
FXUS63 KAPX 070728
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
228 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WITH LINGERING RAIN/ DRIZZLE TODAY.
- SHARPLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
- SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
MAIN MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS
OCCASSIONALLY PUSHING 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY
THE AFTERNOON, WITH COOLER AIR NOT FULLY ARRIVING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND WINDS GRADUALLY EASE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR FLURRIES MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AS COLDER AIR
DEEPENS ACROSS THE LAKES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND, SIGNALING THE START OF A NOTABLE COOLDOWN
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVELY CALM START TO THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW TO BRUSH PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER. GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
AN INCH IN SPOTS, MAINLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY OR ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, LOOKS TO BRING THE COLDEST
AIR TO THE REGION AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO, DRIVING A SURGE OF CLD CANADIAN AIR DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW NEGATIVE TEENS SHOULD TRIGGER A WIDESPREAD LAKE RESPONSE,
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE KEY; A PRIMARY NORTHERLY COMPONENT WOULD FAVOR SNOW
BANDS SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE STRAITS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. SOME LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING COULD
COMPLICATE BAND PLACEMENT, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS REMAINS
LOW, BUT LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST LOWER.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE 30S, WITH WIND
CHILLS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. BY TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING AND DRIER AIR EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LEADING TO A QUIETER END TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S AND LOW 50S BY MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES FILLING IN AHEAD OF RA
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SE/S WINDS ARE 6 TO 11KTS WITH G15
TO 25KTS. LLWS OF 35 TO 45KTS AT 2 KFT AT KAPN/KPLN/KTVC WILL
LINGER THROUGH 10Z. A BAND OF RA WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MI
TERMINALS TONIGHT. TIMES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE SEEN
NEAR SOME TERMINALS. MOST RA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AFTER 12Z,
HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FOR MOST TERMINALS. VCSH CHANCES NEAR KPLN/KAPN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT W AFTER 12Z AND WITH G15 TO 20KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW/N AFTER 20Z. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...ELD
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