183
FXUS63 KAPX 080826
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
326 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW KICKS OFF LATE THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT, WITH
MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVELY CALM START TO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOWARDS THE EVENING UNDER GRADUALLY
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN BETTER CONVERGENT AREAS, WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD CENTERED ON THE HIGHLANDS OF LEELANAU AND BENZIE
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
DEEP TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THIS TROUGHING CENTERED ON A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
LATER SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW NEGATIVE TEENS SHOULD
TRIGGER A WIDESPREAD LAKE RESPONSE, WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE KEY; A PRIMARY NORTHERLY COMPONENT WOULD
FAVOR SNOW BANDS SETTING UP ALONG PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
AND AREAS NEAR WHITEFISH POINT IN EASTERN UPPER. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING THAT COULD COMPLICATE
BAND PLACEMENT, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT TIMES... THIS WOULD PLACE NORTHEAST LOWER IN BETTER PLACEMENT
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MAKE THE LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECT SNOW
BAND HUG MORE OF THE SHORELINE OR COMPLETELY STAY OFFSHORE.
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO START THE
EVENT, THEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THROUGH SUNDAY, WINDS LOOK TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE 30S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKES WITH
20S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AT TIMES. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, THE CORE OF THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE. WE'LL LIKELY KEEP
SOME LINGERING TROUGHING OVERHEAD, WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND INTERMITTENT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE
40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LEADING TO VCSH AND -SHSN
OVER A FEW TERMINALS TONIGHT. NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL G15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z. SN WILL CONTINUE
NEAR KCIU THROUGH 08Z. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY 10Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER IN A FEW SPOTS, BECOMING FEW-
SCT AT 2-3KFT AFTER 10Z. LIGHT NNW/W WINDS AFTER 12Z FOR MOST
TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SN NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS BEGINS AFTER
00Z. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EXACT TIMES AND LOCATIONS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...ELD
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