738
FXUS63 KAPX 110416
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1116 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY
- MILDER CONDITIONS AHEAD
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEVADA INTO THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH...BUT PRIMARY
SURFACE SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND, ON THE NOSE OF A
140+KT UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. A FEW DISTURBANCES
STILL PRESENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MI COAST...WHERE A NORTH-FLOW BAND
HAS MORE OR LESS SAT MOST OF THE DAY...PERIODICALLY DRIFTING
INTO AND BACK OFF THE COAST BETWEEN FRANKFORT AND LUDINGTON.
WINDS AT FKS AND MBL STILL OUT OF THE NE INDICATING THAT
CONVERGENCE BAND IS STILL GOING STRONG...AND STILL A LITTLE BIT
OFFSHORE.
NIBLETS OF ENERGY STILL PIVOTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPSTREAM RIDGING TO BUILD IN TONIGHT. EXPECT N/NNW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SLOWLY WANING TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH COLDEST AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EASTWARD.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SHIFT
THAT INTENSE BAND BACK ONSHORE BY MANISTEE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. WILL ULTIMATELY EXPECT NW FLOW SNOW
TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE INTENSE OVER-LAKE CONVERGENCE
BAND LIKELY FADING SOME AS IT LOSES BETTER FETCH. ADDITIONALLY,
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FURTHER ASSISTANCE FOR ACTIVITY TO
WANE A BIT GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THINK ANOTHER COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVERALL WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN
MANISTEE AND DOWNWIND OF TC/KALKASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4+ COULD OCCUR, NOTING
SIGNALS FOR BETTER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT COULD ENHANCE BAND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING, AROUND 3Z-ISH. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NW FLOW BAND TO DUMP 2-4 INCHES SOUTH OF
WHITEFISH BAY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY (MOST
LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TROUT LAKE AND BRIMLEY IF IT OCCURS).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
DAYS 2-7 (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES ZIPPING THROUGH THE REGION...ONE IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, AND ANOTHER IN THE THURSDAY-ISH
TIMEFRAME. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...APPEARS THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE A LITTLE CLOSER TO US...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
MIXY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO
APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GALES AT TIMES ON THE LAKES, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM.
SNOW/MIX TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT TUESDAY
MORNING; HAVE CONCERNS THAT WE MAY SEE SOME SEEDER-FEEDER TO
GET ACTIVITY STARTED A BIT EARLIER (MORNING HOURS), THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MID AFTERNOON AND LATER...PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SHOULD BE MORE MOIST
IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE (PWATS AROUND 0.5IN OR SO) AND THINK WE
COULD GET SOME BETTER QPF WITH THIS. THINK INTERIOR AREAS THAT
STAY COLDER (I.E., HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL BE MORE INCLINED TO BE
SNOW...WITH MORE OF A MIX/RAIN NEAR THE COASTS...BUT DO WONDER
IF THAT SEEDER-FEEDER IDEA COULD KEEP US MORE ON THE SNOW SIDE
THAN WE EXPECT. THINK WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE W/NW AGAIN...PERHAPS MORE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN AS WE START TO WARM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS -SHSN DIMINISHES AND MOVES AWAY FROM
TERMINALS. KPLN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING VCSH OR -SHSN THROUGH
10Z AS WINDS TURN W. KCIU WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE
FRINGES OF MVFR IMPACTS. WINDS BECOME W BY 10Z AND SW/S AFTER
16Z FOR MOST TERMINALS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. -SN WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 20Z FOR KCIU/KPLN/KAPN. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN
IMPACTS BEING SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS KTVC/KMBL. SN WILL EXIT AFTER
02Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ031-086.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...ELD
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