993
FXUS63 KAPX 111131
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRISK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/ SNOW TODAY.
- MILDER CONDITIONS AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
POSSIBLY BEGINNING A BIT EARLIER IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE SEEDER-
FEEDER PROCESSES COULD OCCUR. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN MARGINAL,
SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY WITH HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND
LEANING TOWARDS MAINLY SNOW, WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN/ SNOW MIX OR PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNON AND EVENING, SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
PWATS AROUND 0.5" SUGGEST THAT THERE'S ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
MODEST QPF TOTALS, GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERALL, BUT
PERSISTENT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT GRADUALLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S AS WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR A GREATER
TRANSITION BACK TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES, ESPECAILLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, WITH WINDS CHILLS IN THE 20S. NO MAJOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED, BUT THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND WIND (ALONG WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT) COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK TRAVEL
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY AS UPPER-LVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY
SLIDES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION AS RAIN...SOME
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/ SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S LOOK
TO BE EXPECTED.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RENEWED BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN UP HAS CIU MOMENTARILY
WITH AN LIFR CIG. NO OBS HAVE ANYTHING CLOSE TO THAT, SO DON'T
THINK IT WILL PERSIST, BUT HAVE LIFR THERE FOR A FEW HOURS AS A
STARTER. OTHERWISE A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BECOME MORE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ
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