733
FXUS63 KAPX 121135
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED SHOWERS WITH BREEZY WINDS TODAY.
- DRYING/WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK.
- RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING. SOME OF THE STEADIER/HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD FALL AS SNOW, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, BUT A TRANSITION TO LARGELY
RAIN SHOWERS AREA-WIDE WILL BE THE CASE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH MOST AREAS
TRENDING DRIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S, ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, OR
PERHAPS ALL SNOW, FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH MOSTLY RAIN
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE... SOME PATCHY REFREEZING IN COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACES REMAIN WET COULD MAKE FOR SOME
SLICK ROADS TONIGHT/ THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
A MUCH QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON TAP TO WRAP UP THE
WORKWEEK AS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER, BRINGING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY CONDTIONS AND
AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY
THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SHOULD TAPPER LARGELY BY THE
AFTERNOON AS SUBSTANCE INCREASES AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO LARGELY BE IN THE
40S, WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM DROPPING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LOOKS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND COVERAGE, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST RENEWED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, SUNDAY LOOKS TO LIKELY PROVIDE A BETTER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
MAINLY MVFR TO AT TIMES VFR TODAY, IMPROVING TONIGHT FROM S TO
N. -SHRA ARE OCCURRING IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE WIDESPREAD IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH
IN SOME CASES CIGS WOBBLE UP TO LOW-END VFR. THIS WILL BE THE
GENERAL TREND TODAY, BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS WORKING IN
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
BREEZY W TO WNW WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ
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