446
FXUS63 KAPX 212021
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BATCH OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
- COLDER WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
VERY BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OFF TO OUR NORTH. COUPLE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL WAFFLE AND
LINGER ACROSS THE E UP, HOWEVER. NOT A HUGE CONCERN OVERALL
TONIGHT DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. WORST CASE SCENARIO
MIGHT RESULT IN ~0.5" IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS, MAINLY ON COLDER
SURFACES. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CANADA DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL SLIDE A
BAND/BATCH OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN N MI, LARGELY ACROSS
TIP OF THE MITT AND NORTHWARD. COULD SEE VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS
AND LOWERED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE E UP AS THE BAND SWINGS ON
THROUGH, NOT MUCH SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF A LAKE COMPONENT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS FILTER IN, BUT JUST SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES CLOSER AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
DAY 2-3 (SUNDAY - MONDAY):
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DRIVEN MAINLY BY MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION
WANES THROUGH THE DAY WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF TO THE WEST. CIRCULATION
AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
N MI AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY, LOW 50S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AND BEYOND, FIRST WET THEN WHITE.
DAYS 4-7 (TUESDAY - FRIDAY):
SHORTWAVE/OPENING UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, SECONDARY
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS NORTHERN MI MID WEEK WITH
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ~LATE
WEEK, JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY AND ALL ASSOCIATED TRAVEL
PLANS. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT, BUT THE ADVERTISED PATTERN
CHANGE TO MORE WINTRY APPEARS PROBABLE. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE
ABOUT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND THERMAL PROFILES WITH ANY DEGREE OF
FINESSE/PRECISION. FOR CERTAIN THOUGH, TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
TOWARDS THE 30S FOR HIGHS, IF NOT A LITTLE COLDER, AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SNOW BELTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TREND TO VFR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN TURN SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VCSH AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AT CIU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLN LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC
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