317
FXUS63 KAPX 260850
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. EVENT SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 6-12", LOCALIZED 12-18", AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-50+ MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN ONCE
AGAIN. BEHIND THE UPPER AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER FROM WEST TO EAST,
QUICKLY CHANGING ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ALONG
WITH LAKE BANDED SNOWS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
FOCUS BEING GAYLORD AND POINTS WEST AND SOUTH, ALONG WITH PORTIONS
OF EASTERN UPPER. ALONG WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPING, MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES, THE COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS, WITH VALUES 30 TO 45
MPH, LOCALIZED 50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
TRAVEL THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
BY 7AM THANKSGIVING MORNING, AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GAYLORD AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST,
LOCALLY HIGHER. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ONGOING DURING
THIS TIME, WITH PLENTY MORE TO COME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OF THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ON
THURSDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
AVERAGE. A DOMINANT NORTHWEST BAND OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT APPEARS
LIKELY, WITH EMBEDDED BROADER SNOWS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW
BELTS. SOME PIECES OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BALANCE
BETWEEN THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY, LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AND
LAKE SUPERIOR TO MICHIGAN CONNECTION WILL SUSTAIN A DOMINANT AND
INTENSE LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT BAND ACROSS ANTRIM/KALKASKA
COUNTIES, AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CRAWFORD/ROSCOMMON COUNTIES. IF
THIS MATERIALIZES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ONLY LITTLE WAFFLING
OR SHIFTING, TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 18" WOULD NOT ONLY
BE POSSIBLE BUT PROBABLE WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
END OF THE EVENT. A BROADER AREA OF ~5-10"/6-12" WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS, WITH AMOUNTS VARYING WILDLY IN
DIRECT PROPORTION TO THE RESONANCE TIME OF THE MORE ROBUST SNOW
BAND(S).
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY ON THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS,
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW RESULTING
IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, LOW VISIBILITY, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT ON THANKSGIVING. HAZARDOUS TO
DANGEROUS TRAVEL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS EVEN IN
AREAS OUTSIDE/DOWNSTREAM OF THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS, REGARDLESS
OF THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO RAPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL COMPOUND ALREADY DANGEROUS TRAVEL.
THE ONLY CONSIDERATION IN REGARDS TO THE CURRENT HAZARDS WOULD
BE IF THERE NEEDS TO BE AN UPGRADE FOR ANY LOCATION DOWNSTREAM
OF ONE OF THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BANDS, SPECIFICALLY
OGEMAW. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT FEATURE PENETRATING THAT
FAR INLAND WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT THIS TIME, AND THUS,
HAZARDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE TIME BEING.
WEEKEND:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING THIS WEEKEND. THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE MORE AREA
WIDE, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE. ENS GUIDANCE
GENERALLY HAS MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI FOR REFERENCE. BEHIND
THIS NEXT SNOW EVENT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON IS LIKELY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LOW CLOUDS, MIST, AND SHOWERS. EXPECT
SNOW TO BEGIN TO MIX IN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KTVC AND
KMBL, WITH SNOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, AGAIN ESPECIALLY
AT KTVC AND KMBL. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
VERY GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING,
WHEN FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED (PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN). THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING, FURTHER
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MIZ016>018-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-086>088-
095>097-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ021-022-027-028-033-034-086-087-095-096-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ026-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ088.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR LMZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ345-
346.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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