024
FXUS63 KAPX 281140
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 12-18 INCHES IN PARTS OF
KALKASKA, CRAWFORD, AND ROSCOMMON COUNTIES UNDER THE HEAVIEST BAND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BACK TO MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
CLASSIC HIGH-END LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A
CLOSED LOW SPINS PRECARIOUSLY OVER QUEBEC WHILE WEAKER SURFACE LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE TROUGHING REGIME,
WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND LEAKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW IN QUEBEC AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA HAVE LED TO A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
COLD ADVECTION REGIME THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY, ALBEIT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS THUS FAR... SEVERAL
EVENT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANTRIM,
SW OTSEGO, EASTERN KALKASKA, AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES, WITH MORE TO
COME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD... MARKING THE
SECOND YEAR IN A ROW THAT THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND FEATURES A
BANGER OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SNOWBELTS.
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWCASES SUPERB SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE
TO DOGGONE NEAR 300MB. INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT GENERALLY HOLDING
AROUND 600 -500MB... A TESTAMENT TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE DGZ, CONTRIBUTING TO
VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH TIME, MOISTURE
HAS SLOWLY WANED AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE... A
TREND THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AS MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW BAND STRUCTURES HAVE LARGELY BEEN FRACTURED INTO
LESSER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. WIND CHANGES WILL ALSO DICTATE
THE PLACEMENT OF SNOWBANDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING NNW TO NW FLOW
WILL HOLD INTO THE MORNING, GENERALLY KEEPING THOSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS LOCKED INTO PLACE ACROSS NW AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN... ALONG WITH FAR EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES
AND THE EASTERN YOOP WEST OF A SAULT TO DE TOUR VILLAGE LINE. WINDS
SET TO GRADUALLY BACK MORE WESTERLY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH WILL LEAD
TO THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHIFTING MORE NORTH, FOCUSING MUCH MORE ON THE
M-32 CORRIDOR BY LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS TAPER AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WANE... AND EVENTUALLY SEEING ACTIVITY MERGE TOWARD THE
COAST AS THE WEAKER FLOW LEADS TO A LAKE-LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE
SETUP, AND SNOW IN GENERALLY TRENDS MUCH LIGHTER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
FOR THE SNOW LOVERS IN THE AREA... THIS IS YOUR TIME TO BASK IN ALL
YOUR GLORY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ZIPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY / LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND WILL COMMENCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY... BUT WITH THIS SOUTHERN STORM TRACK... GREATEST SYNOPTIC
SNOWS WILL PROBABLY LAND SOUTH OF M-32. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME SSE FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER LAKE HURON WHICH WILL PROVE TO
BOOST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY (INCLUDING DRUMMOND
ISLAND)... ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY THAT ALPENA-PRESQUE ISLE AREA AS
WELL. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL BE A 3 TO 6 INCH
EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THAT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ZONE... AND WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN THE SYSTEM... AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 MAY TOUCH WARNING
CRITERIA IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, WE WILL
CONTEND WITH THE STANDARD BACKSIDE-OF-THE-SYSTEM-LAKE-EFFECT GAME
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WHICH
SHOULD DELIVER THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW... AND WITH LONG TERM TRENDS
PAINTING TROUGH DOMINANT PATTERNS AND AMPLE COLD, ANTICIPATION IS
THAT WE CONTINUE THE THEME OF ACTIVE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION AT VARIOUS TIME THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TODAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SHARPLY FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THOUGH THINGS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY PREVAILING VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AS WELL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ016>018-023-024-029-035-086-087-095-096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ021-
022-027-028-034-099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JPB
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