307
FXUS63 KAPX 301749
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TAPERING DOWN THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED BLOWING / DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
EVEN FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF STEADIER SNOW.
- TRANSIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL SET TO IMPACT THE SNOWBELT
REGIONS AS WINDS PIVOT FROM NNW THIS AFTERNOON TO SW BY
MORNING.
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.
- ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN MARCHES ON INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK,
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALLS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PROGRESS
NORTH AND EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT, WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY MID MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY LEADING
TO A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION... COMPLETE WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE DE TOUR PASSAGE REGION OF
EASTERN UPPER. THIS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHIELD WILL DEPART THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH THE ESTABLISHED LAKE ENHANCEMENT BANDS PIVOTING SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE
NNW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY TO BACK FURTHER TO WEAKER SW FLOW BY
MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDES AND SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ERODES. RESULT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVELY TRANSIENT LAKE
EFFECT REGIME THAT SHOULD SETTLE ONTO THE STRAITS REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SNOW:
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL: CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT ON
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION... ALBEIT WITH SOME CAVEATS. ONE OF THE
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING THE
RATIOS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALL THAT WELL... AND LOW AND BEHOLD...
THE LATEST SNOW OBSERVATION HERE AT APX IS SHOWCASING 9.5:1 SNOW
RATIOS (0.23" LIQUID, 2.2" OF SNOWFALL). SO... WITH THAT BEING
SAID... ANTICIPATING THAT WE WIND UP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE
GOALPOSTS IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGE (SINCE
SNOW BEGAN YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)... WITH MOST OF THE
AREA PROBABLY SETTLING WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW... GENERALLY
5 TO 7 NEAR SAGINAW BAY... AND IN THOSE LAKE ENHANCED AREAS (FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER, DE TOUR PASSAGE AREA), PROBABLY 6 TO 10
INCHES, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER... INCLUDING THE PASSAGE OF ANY
OVER- LAKE SNOW BANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON: NEXT ITEM ON THE DOCKET WILL BE THE OVER-LAKE
CONVERGENCE BANDS THAT ARE ESSENTIALLY GOING TO BE WRAPPED
AROUND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LIKE A MEDIEVAL SNOW-MOAT...
GENERALLY FROM THE THUMB, CURVING INTO THE STRAITS, AND WEST TO
THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY TRANSIENT AS THEY PASS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE... BUT... WILL COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME... SO
WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW DOESN'T SEEM ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE, MOST OF IT WILL FALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO. COMBINED
WITH ACCELERATING BACKSIDE FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT BLOWING
/ DRIFTING CONCERNS, THIS PERIOD WILL SHOWCASE PERHAPS THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS EVENT THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THAT THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY, SO THERE COULD BE
A LONGER PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD SNOW RATES THERE.
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT:
NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT TAKES CHARGE AS THAT COLD ADVECTION REGIME
PEAKS, AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOUBLE-LAKE
CONNECTION COULD BRING ABOUT SOME BETTER SNOW RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DOWNWIND OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY... SO
A LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE,
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC
LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES THERE AS WELL. FLOW WILL BE
SCOOTING RIGHT AROUND TO THE SW BY MORNING, SO THESE BANDS WILL
HAVE A "LAWN SPRINKLER EFFECT" TO THEM, ESSENTIALLY SPREADING A
FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE SNOWBELTS
TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ON THE STRAITS BY DAYBREAK.
HEADLINES:
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GIVEN SYNOPTIC
SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING. PENDING FORECASTER DISCRETION IN THE
NEXT CYCLE, THESE HEADLINES MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREAS MORE
AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BE AN ADVISORY AT
WORST IF THAT STEP IS TAKEN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN SET TO BULLDOZE ON, WHICH SHOULD LAY THE BASE
FOR WHAT WILL BE AN EXCELLENT COMMENCEMENT OF WINTER RECREATION
ACROSS SELECT AREAS OF THE NORTHWOODS. HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPCOMING WINTRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK-
MONDAY - TUESDAY: WEAK SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT / STRAITS AND
INTO THE DE TOUR CHANNEL VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LARGELY DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE... PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE TO MANISTEE, BUT NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING. A WEAK
WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD SEND MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW DOWNSTATE, PERHAPS LEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA... BUT WILL ENHANCE SW FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, SO SOME MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND INTO THE
STRAITS AND DE TOUR CHANNEL REGION. THIS WILL BE A QUICKER
HITTING WAVE, SO ANTICIPATING THE FLARE UP TO TAPER INTO
TUESDAY... WITH LAKE EFFECT REMAINING OVER THOSE SAME AREAS.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION... ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
AGAIN LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, TARGETING THE STRAITS AND INTO DE
TOUR CHANNEL GIVEN PERSISTENT SW FLOW. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THAT IT WILL HAVE A PRETTY PRONOUNCED COLD AIR INTRUSION
IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL FLIP WINDS MORE NW, AND WILL FORCE LAKE EFFECT
INTO THE MORE TRADITIONAL NW FLOW SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE SUBSEQUENT NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
MAY TREND LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME, BUT STILL BE IMPACTFUL
NONETHELESS. BIG THING HERE... THIS WILL COMMENCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S... AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAY COME
PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE INTERIOR LOCALES THAT AVOID LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY GIVEN FRESH SNOWPACK AND SLACKENING WINDS... SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS ARE A GOOD BET AT BEST IN THESE AREAS.
FRIDAY / NEXT WEEKEND: ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO MARCH ON, WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES PRODUCING SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE SNOWBELT LOCALES.
STILL LOOKING TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EXPECT TRANSITION TO N/NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
MOST INTENSE LIKELY AT MBL AND TVC AFTER 21Z WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VISBYS, WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY NEAR CIU/APN/PLN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. WINDS N/NNW THIS AFTERNOON 15-25KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING 25-
35KTS BUT SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE (5KT OR LESS) BEFORE TURNING AROUND TO THE SW MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESP PLN/CIU MONDAY
MORNING. MOST SITES MVFR TO VFR AFTER 0-3Z. POSSIBLE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT APN AFTER 5Z...HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH
SCT005 IN TAFS OVERNIGHT, LESS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016-017-020>023-025>029-031>034-086-087-095-097>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ018-
024-030-035-036-041-042-088-096.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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