106
FXUS63 KAPX 021745
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1245 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER TODAY DELIVERING ONLY
SMALL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS VIA LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
- COLD TEMPERATURES OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED PERIOD CHANCES OF SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WITH
LONG WAVE TROUGHING OCCUPYING THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP COOL CP AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TYPICAL SW FLOW AREAS
TODAY, BUT DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SCOUR OUT PRECIP BY TONIGHT.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...CONDTIONS ACROSS THE REGION BEGIN TO TURN QUIET AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SLOWLY PUSHES DRY AIR INTO THE CWA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KILL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BANDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES WILL WEAKEN, BUT HAVE
ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO CARRY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A TRACE OF LIGHT
18:1 SNOW AS BANDS TO NOT HAVE ANY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. AREAS ALONG
ANTRIM, CHARLEVOIX, AND EMMIT COUNTIES WILL ACCUMULATE AN ADDITIONAL
FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WHILE HI-REZ GUIDANCE DOES DEPICTS
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1-3" JUST NORTH OF LITTLE TRAVERSE
BAY. BUT AGAIN; THESE BANDS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND NOT IMPACT
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION DUE TO A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
A FEW FLURRIES ONLY IMPACT LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA (WHICH IS VERY
PAR OF THE COURSE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN DECEMBER). WARM AIR
ADVECTION DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
BREEZY WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST. LOWS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD
AS A RESULT OF WAA WITH EXPECTED WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MAKE ITS WAY TO NORTHERN ONTARIO
THIS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONNECTED TO THIS WAVE WILL DRAG
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, RETURNING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
IDEAL AS THE EMBEDDED TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT TAPPING INTO DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL REMAIN BETWEEN A GENERAL HALF INCH
TO 2" FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT NORTHWESTERN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DELIVER LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS VIA LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE SNOWFALL TOTALS
DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE LAKE RESPONSE IS, BUT CLASSIC NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF
EVEN MORE SNOWFALL THIS WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OUTLOOK...LONG WAVE TROUGHING SPANNED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER PERIODS
OF (SOMEWHAT) ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PROBS OF SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FROM EMBEDDED HIGH DISTURBANCES OR CONTINUED COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRIGGERING LES. NO EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, BUT THIS LONG SNOWY PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DELIVERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR/ MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
TREND PREDOMINANTLY MVFR ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
TONIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY EXTEND TO CIU AND APN THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT (OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS) ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
TRACKS TO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TAF SITES TO IFR
NEAR THE END OF THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...NSC
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