196
FXUS63 KAPX 031935
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
235 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOT OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR VISITING THE NORTHWOODS
INTO THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
- MORE OF THE SAME HEADING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH PERIODIC
SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
PRETTY RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT NOW EXITING OFF INTO NORTHERN LAKE
HURON, WITH A SHOT OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SWEEPING INTO
THE REGION BEHIND IT. ADDITIONAL LAKE SNOWS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
THE RESULT, WITH EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS LURKING JUST UPSTREAM. STILL
RELATIVELY "MILD" OUT THERE, WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH THOSE WARMEST READINGS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUNRISE SIDE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO THE EAST HEADING INTO LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LAKE SNOW EVOLUTION AND ATTENDANT AMOUNTS/HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
DETAILS:
OVER-WATER THERMAL GRADIENT ONLY INCREASES FURTHER WITH TIME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS H8 TEMPERATURES BREAK -20C (PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY DECEMBER). TRANSITION TO A MORE "PURE" LAKE
EFFECT ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR AS ANY REAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT IS LOST. STILL, SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOW PARAMETERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, HELPED ALONG BY
MATURING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING RUNNING UP WHITEFISH BAY INTO THE
CENTRAL BASIN. GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE DEPTHS (UP TO 10KFT) AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VIA THAT LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING
WILL DEFINITELY HELP COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION,
WITH WELL ORGANIZED LAKE BANDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAMED
SNOWBELTS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT SAID, STILL HAVE SOME TREPIDATION WITH REGARDS TO EXACT SNOW
TOTALS AS AGGRESSIVE COOLING PERHAPS FORCES THE FLUFF-PRODUCING
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE (PERHAPS BELOW CLOUD
BASE LEVELS ALTOGETHER). HOWEVER, HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED AGGRESSIVE
LAKE MODIFICATION WITHIN BETTER BANDING STRUCTURES EVENTUALLY
FORCING THE FAVORED DGZ BACK WITHIN THE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION LAYER.
WE SHALL SEE. EITHER WAY, LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LOOKING TO PERHAPS DIRECT THEMSELVES RIGHT
INTO THE SOO AND ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE M-28 CORRIDOR. EASILY
EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY LATER THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS ON THE TABLE...ESPECIALLY IF THAT
DGZ REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH LAYER. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEFINITELY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE MORE OPEN AREAS ALONG M-28. THIS OF COURSE WILL
ONLY EXACERBATE THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY OFF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH BOTH
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LACK OF ANY WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE. THESE SHOULD THEORETICALLY RESULT IN LESS
ORGANIZED MULTI-BAND STRUCTURES AS WELL AS LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES. STILL, SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF PASSING SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER BY LATER
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE DIFFUSED BANDS BECOME A BIT MORE STATIONARY.
AGAIN, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...DEFINITELY RESULTING IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWER
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION EXPECTED TO DECREASE OF BOTH LAKES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE DEPTHS SHRINK AND LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING IS LOST.
OTHER FOCUS IS ON THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM THOSE LAKE MODIFIED
AREAS...AND HIGHS THURSDAY LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS INLAND REGIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OF COURSE MAKE IT
FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER, WITH WIND CHILL READINGS LIKELY
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
REALLY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS LONG-WAVE TROUGHING AND ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW MAINTAIN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER
RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ADDITIONAL SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SIMPLY A FORECAST OF PERSISTENCE INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. EACH ONE OF THESE
WAVES WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF LAKE AUGMENTED SNOWS...WITH THE
THREAT FOR ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN CENTERED IN OUR TRADITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT AREAS. NOT SEEING ANY REAL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY TARGET
HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COLLAR COUNTIES. SIMPLE FORECAST
PERSISTENCE THEREAFTER, WITH ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING AND RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED WAVES KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST EMPHASIS IN OUR SNOWBELT
REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY BUT
REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RIGHT THOUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF VALID TIME.
WINDS HAVE OR WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE WIND DIRECTION FAVORS THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCIU, BUT OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE THEM FROM TIME TO TIME AS
WELL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ086-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...PBB
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