432
FXUS63 KAPX 130449
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER PARTS OF NW LOWER, EASTERN
UPPER, AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT
- LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 0F SATURDAY
- CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
OVER NORTHERN MI
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUING NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE A STRONGER COLD FRONT NEAR
THE MN/WI BORDER. SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE MI
AND NORTHERN MI. RADAR IS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING JUST OFF THE COAST OF CHARLEVOIX AND MOVING INTO EMMET
CO.
TONIGHT: AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WINDS AS THEY VEER WESTERLY. THIS
"PUNCH" OF COLDER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS NORTHERN MI BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TIMES OF MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE
SEEN INITIALLY ALONG THE SNOWBELTS, TIP OF THE MITT, NORTHERN
LAKE MI COAST, AND AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER
AIR DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN POWDER LIKE SNOW. THIS SNOW
HAS SLIGHTLY LOWER SLRS (STILL A DRY SNOW), BUT IS SO FINE THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE GREATLY REDUCED WHEN IT BLOWS AROUND.
PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY IS SEEN EARLY SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF NW LOWER
AS SNOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT FOOTPRINT, AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURDAY: SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SECTION
OF THE NW LOWER SNOWBELT AS WINDS REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST. A BAND OF
FOCUSED SNOW COULD FORM NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES TO SEE SPOTS OF HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF NW LOWER WILL WEAKEN, BUT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST.
AROUND 2 TO 6" IS EXPECTED OVER THE ADVISED AREAS OF NORTHERN
LOWER BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO +8".
OVER EASTERN UPPER, HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA (WHITEFISH POINT AND THE SOO), WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TIMES OF SNOW MEANDERING INTO OTHER PARTS OF CHIPPEWA.
BANDS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY AND
LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF +10" NEAR WHITEFISH POINT
AND NEAR THE SOO. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW CHARACTERISTIC WILL BE MORE
OF A POWDER, AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT AND SOME SYNOPTIC HELP WILL
ALLOW FOR TIMES OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR UNDER THE
HEAVIER BANDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN MI SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
WIND CHILL VALUES THAT STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 0F THE WHOLE DAY.
SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AMPLIFIES WEST TO
EAST AND ROTATES SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS HELPS PUSH THE FINAL
SLUG OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD. WINDS OVER THE CAN SHIELD WILL TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS THEY DO, ESTABLISHED LAKE AGGREGATE
TROUGHING OVER NE LK SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT OVER THE WHITEFISH BAY.
WITH THIS, HEAVY SNOW COULD BE POINTED RIGHT AT THE SOO, LEADING TO
A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF 1-2" PER HOUR RATES. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIME THIS WILL OCCUR - SATURDAY EVENING
OR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (SAT & SUN) TO REACH +8" NEAR THE SOO. THIS WILL
ALSO BE A NIGHT OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS THAT
CAN SEE CLEARER SKIES OVERNIGHT (PARTS OF NE LOWER).
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL VEER NORTH AND WEAKEN. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS OF LL CONVERGENCE NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY,
WHICH COULD KEEP AREAS NEAR, SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAD TRAVERSE BAY
SNOWY MOST OF SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY, RETURNING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW CHANCES TO MOST OF EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER. SOME BRIEF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE SEEN LATE
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. THE FOCUS OF SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EASTERN UPPER AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THRU END OF PERIOD: TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN UPPER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW UP THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING
MID WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY TARGET AREA CENTERING BETWEEN TAF
LOCATIONS INTO THE NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SNOW BELTS THROUGH
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF LOWER CIGS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS, BUT THINKING VAST
MAJORITY OF THIS TIME WILL REMAIN MVFR TO LOWER END VFR. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (UP AND OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES),
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. WINDS VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, FOCUSING BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS...LIKELY PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ086-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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