689
FXUS63 KAPX 131633
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
-VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH APPARENT TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO.
-MILD WEATHER RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING WITH A DECENT JET
CORE (150-170+ KTS) CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH AMERICA. CP AND CA AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL PLUMMET SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OPEN
WATER AND WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE CWA.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...POST COLD FRONTAL CONDTIONS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS ON TODAY'S
FORECAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DRAWS CA INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTS
IN THE MID 20S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. EVEN WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERIC MIDLEVELS TODAY, ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUPPORTED WITH
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES FOR LOCALIZED PARTS OF THE CWA. WNW
DIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL FAVOR CLASSIC SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
MAINLY WEST OF I-75. ALL COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER ADVISORIES CAN
ONLY EXPECT ONLY A GENERAL 2-4" FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND CREATING A UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND TURNING LES BANDS MORE CELLULAR. HOWEVER; BETTER
FETCH, OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVER THE CLASSIC "BIG FIVE" OF NORTHERN LOWER (CHARLEVOIX, KALKASKA,
OTSEGO, CRAWFORD, AND ANTRIM) WILL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS OF 6-
8"+.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE UP WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE CWA
AS FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DELIVERS HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF EASTERN UPPER WHILE AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF M-28 HAS MEDIUM
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-70%) OF 4-8" AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
OVER 10" NEAR AND NORTH OF SAULT STE. MARIE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE RIGHT AFTER SUNSET FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN START TO VEER, SHIFTING SNOWBANDS AND HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO TODAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY, RADAR WILL
APPEAR TO HAVE RETURNED TO CLASSIC NNW MILTI-BANDED LES. WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" OF 18:1 SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE SNOWBELTS WHILE LOCALIZED AREAS OF ANTRIM AND KALKASKA
COUNTY OF 2-4"+ BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
NOTICEABLE/IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN LAKE HURON SUNDAY. PERSISTENT BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE TYPICAL PAR-OF-THE-COURSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DRY
LOW TO MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER QPF TOTALS. MOST ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY AN INCH
OR LESS IS EXPECTED FOR THE TYPICAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PROGRESSES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS MONDAY.
HIGHEST SYNOPTIC-DRIVEN SNOWFALL FAVORS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-50%) OF A GENERAL 2-4" NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE A MORE DEFINITIVE
FORECAST, BUT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SNOW WITH A QUICK SHOT OF
LES IS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD, RAISING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CREATING MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTH AND RETURN SOME OVERDUE MILD AND QUIET WEATHER. AT THE
SURFACE, LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WHILE TEMPERATURES BUILD
ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OUTLOOK...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW A LACK OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
ADVECTION, HINTING AT LOW AMOUNTS OF QPF. MOST OF THE IMPACTS AND
POTENTIAL CONCERN REMAINS FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION REINTRODUCING
MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE RAINFALL
THURSDAY THEN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AS SOON AS POST
FRONTAL CAA MOVES INTO THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
LAKE EFFECT SHSN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AVOID MUCH OF THE TAF
SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MBL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES
OTHERWISE HOLD MVFR TO VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR DURING
ANY SNOW SHOWER PASSAGES. GUSTY WNW WINDS SHIFT NNW TO N THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD CARRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PERHAPS
TAPERING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ086-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD
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