222
FXUS63 KAPX 132023
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHERN LOWER RESULTING IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER BANDS
OF HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOWBELT AREAS
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTH
AND WEAKEN, MOVING THE FOCUS OF SNOW TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
RETURNING SNOW CHANCES TO MOST OF NORTHERN MI AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING STARTING TUESDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE STATE. UNDER GENERALLY WEST WINDS A FEW
ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FORM; ONE
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY,
ANOTHER ALONG M-32, A MORE TRANSIENT BAND JUST SOUTH OF THAT
ONE AND MULTIBAND ACTION UP OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LK SUPERIOR.
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXIST ELSEWHERE. UNDER THESE
HEAVIER BANDS, VERY COLD PROFILES ALOFT (SINGLE DIGIT SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE) HUG THE DGZ CLOSE TO THE SURFACE -
RESULTING IN SMALL FLAKES OR A POWDERY SNOW CHARACTERISTIC. SLRS
WERE INITIALLY HIGHER THIS MORNING (BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
ALOFT MOVED IN) WHEN IT FIRST STARTED TO SNOW (SOME RATIOS WERE
20:1), HOWEVER THESE HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER (15:1 FOR 18Z OB).
THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS LED TO QUICK DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS THE
POWDERY SNOW GETS BLOWN IN THE WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH)
OR UNDER HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A COUPLE
OF REPORTS UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE ADVISED
AREAS SO FAR.
ABOVE OUR HEADS, THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO CAN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
WINDS REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WEST WINDS ALOFT
ARE A PRODUCT OF SOME AMPLIFICATION ON THE WEST AND EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST, MOVING THE
WESTERN LOBE OF ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MI OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND RESULTING IN SECOND PEAK INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. LL AND NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND NORTH DURING THIS TIME, BECOMING
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING (6 TO 8 PM ET). THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE UNDER THE CHANGING WINDS, CURRENTLY
SEEN AS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS HAVE FINALLY MOVED OVER THE SOO THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVIER BANDS WILL FOCUS MORE OVER THE TYPICAL SNOW
BELT AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER (BIG 5) TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
STRETCH FARTHER INLAND AS THE UPPER FORCING AIDS GENERATING THIS
SECOND PEAK OF INTENSITY. TIMES OF VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SNOW.
DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS FOCUSES THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS OVER GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND AREAS SOUTH. THESE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL
SURFACE FEATURES REACH THE SAME AREA (LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING
ROTATES SOUTH FROM THE U.P.).
LL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 20S.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPREADING
OVER A LARGER AREA AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TONIGHT, LEADING TO
MOST OF NW LOWER SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 1-6 INCHES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SLRS WILL RISE AGAIN AS LL TEMPERATURES TREND UP SUNDAY,
AND FORCING CAN STILL PUSH THE DGZ SATURATION INTO A DECENT
DEPTH. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SURFACE FORCING,
SPOTS NEAR KALKASKA AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF +6 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ROBUST OVER EASTERN UPPER DUE TO THIS LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS
IT IS STILL ORGANIZED, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 8 INCHES OVER AREAS ADJACENT AND SOUTH OF WHITEFISH BAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF +10" WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN NORTHWEST, HOWEVER
THE UPPER LEVEL PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN/WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE CWA EARLY MONDAY.
LL WINDS SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AS SOME LAKE EFFECT
REMAINS POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, AS THE TIME WINDOW IS FAIRLY SHORT AND FORCING ISN'T IDEAL OR
VERTICALLY ALIGNED. INTIAL THOUGHTS FOR TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE T-1
INCHES FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER, WITH 1-4 INCHES NEAR THE TIP OF
THE MITT AND AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO ABOVE 0C. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES (SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING), HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS (ABOVE FREEZING TDS
WILL EAT AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK), AND RAIN CHANCES ARE ALL POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAT CAN ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR THIS FAR NORTH
WILL ALSO SHUNT COLD, DRY CAN AIR OVER THE SAME AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
LAKE EFFECT SHSN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AVOID MUCH OF THE TAF
SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MBL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES
OTHERWISE HOLD MVFR TO VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR DURING
ANY SNOW SHOWER PASSAGES. GUSTY WNW WINDS SHIFT NNW TO N THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD CARRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PERHAPS
TAPERING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ086-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...HAD
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