539
FXUS63 KAPX 141823
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
123 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IMPACTS THE TYPICAL SNOWBELTS.
-CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
-MILD WEATHER BUILDS MIDWEEK THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGHING SPANNED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO OCCUPY THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH COOL CP/CA AIR. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ENCLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON PROGRESSES EASTWARD
AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT HAS
VEERED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN LES BANDS TO SHIFT BACK
TO A CLASSIC NNW FLOW PATTERN. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, DRY AIR
BUILDS ALOFT, AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL START TO LIGHTEN
THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KILL SNOWFALL OUTRIGHT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF A GENERAL TRACE TO AN INCH OR TWO
FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER; HI-REZ GUIDANCE
DEPICTS ONE OR TWO BANDS FAVORING REGIONS JUST SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY WHERE THE MOST IDEAL FETCH IS POSITIONED. LOCALIZED
AREAS CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2-3+" BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND 00Z
MONDAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL TURN
BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
INTO THE NORTHWOODS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT (SEE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW). CONTINUED COLD CP AIR OCCUPYING THE
REGION WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
ALBERTA WILL PROGRESS TO NORTHERN SUPERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN
WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF CLASSIC WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER CAN EXPECT AN INCH OR SO,
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY DELIVER LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4"+ TO AREAS NEAR AND AROUND THE STRAITS DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN RETREATS
NORTHWARD MIDWEEK THIS WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BUILD A MORE MILD AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A STRONG PACIFIC JET MAXIMA
UPSTREAM. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND TRACKS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AS THIS SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR PLACES ITSELF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AFTER HIGHS/DEW POINTS CLIMB TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND EAT
AWAY AT CURRENT SNOWPACK, RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
THURSDAY. TOO EARLY TO GIVE A DETAILED QPF, BUT HIGHEST PROBS OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OUTLOOK...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
STRONG UPSTREAM INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC JET. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ONGOING TEMPERATURES NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING
WILL CONTINUE THE CONCERN OF DIMINISHING SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPORTANCE
ON THE LOCAL ECONOMY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY BREAK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED INLAND TOWARD EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KTVC AND EVENTUALLY KPLN/KCIU. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SET UP. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SO SOME BETTER SNOWFALL PROBABLY AT KPLN AND
PERHAPS REACHING INTO KCIU OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF TOWARD MIDDAY MONDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ020-021-026-027-032-033-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JPB
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