321
FXUS63 KAPX 150702
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY 1-3" EXPECTED.
-MILD WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY-THURSDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
-WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BACKSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...CURRENT 700MB HEIGHTS DEPICT A WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND
SPREAD SNOWFALL TODAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AS MOST AREAS
WILL BE RECEIVING LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT AS
THIS SET UP DOES NOT HAVE A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BETWEEN
LIMITED MOISTURE BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM AND WEAK
BAROCLINICITY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
BETWEEN A GENERAL HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE CWA. HI REZ GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE WITH FAVORABLE FETCH NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY TO PRODUCE A LAKE
EFFECT BAND DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND DELIVER LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO THE STRAITS REGION. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
WILL LAND ACROSS LOCALIZED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY,
NORTHERN EMMET COUNTY, AND EASTERN END OF THE U.P (SUCH AS
CEDARVILLE AND POSSIBLY DETOUR VILLAGE).
TONIGHT...WINDS BACK TO THE WNW BREIFLY FOR A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS CLIPPER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS DELIVERING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELTS. WHILE ONLY FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF A HALF INCH OR LESS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS QUIET
AS WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS DROP TO THE MID TEENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONGOING LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN
FINALLY COMES TO AN END AND BUILDS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PACIFIC AIR MASS WILL INFLUENCE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION RESULTING IN MORE MILD TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH DAY TIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
30S THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... EMBEDDED HEIGHT
DISTURBANCES WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMA CENTERED OVER MANITOBA WILL
EXTEND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SUPERIOR. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... DEEP MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND UNDERGOES EFFICIENT CYCLOGENESIS AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY TO THE UPPER PLAINS REGION THIS THURSDAY. WARM 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS THURSDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
GETS LOCKED INTO THE SYSTEMS WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS SPREAD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A
QUICK LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESPONSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STILL
TOO EARLY TO GIVE QPF, BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND A
QUARTER INCH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUTLOOK...ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH INTERMEDIATE CHANCES OF PRECIP. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES
HINT AT A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
TERRITORIES AND RETURNING LOW END SNOWFALL CHANCES AROUND THE
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME TO THE NORTHWOODS. AT THIS TIME, NOTHING SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY SNOW, BUT CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES IS LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHUNTED INLAND -- MAINLY EAST OF
I-75 -- AS WIND DIRECTION BEGINS TO TURN TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, GUSTING TO
25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK HITTING ROUND OF
SNOW IS ALSO IN STORE, LIKELY DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
FOR MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE
AREA, TURNING WINDS TO WEST LATER IN THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
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