710
FXUS63 KAPX 160735
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
235 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TODAY-TONIGHT.
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MELTING
SNOWPACK.
-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS MULTIPLE WEATHER TYPES AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...STRONG MIDLEVEL JET MAXIMA OVER THE PACIFIC
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM, INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEK. MILD WEATHER BUILDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH
PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY DUE TO MINOR EMBEDDED
HEIGHT DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA WILL EXTEND A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FAVORING EASTERN UPPER.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. H8 TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
+7-9 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE WHILE SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT, THERE IS THE THREAT THE
THREAT OF POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IN TODAY'S FORECAST AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER
SUPERIOR. HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A TRACE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR A GLAZE OF ICE REMAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WHERE TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE SHORELINE.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LEVEL TROUGHING TIED TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OF THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY TONIGHT, BUT LOW LEVEL GUSTY FLOW
WITH THE AID OF THE LAKES WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
TYPICAL LAKE BELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. AGAIN, ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST IS EXPECTED, BUT COMBINED WITH ANY
POTENTIAL WET SURFACES FROM THE DAYTIME PRECIP COULD LEAD TO SLICK
ROADS OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT MIDLEVEL
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PROGRESSING TO
THE UPPER PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FOR MOST AREAS AS THE CWA IS PLACED IN THE CYCLONE'S WARM SECTOR.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST PROBS OF QPF
REMAINING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN CREATE
STRONG PGF WINDS AND PROVIDE A QUICK LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST PROBS OF SNOWFALL REMAIN 1-3"
FOR THE SNOWBELTS AND LESS ELSEWHERE, BUT ONGOING FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE QUICK DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FREEZE ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. WE WILL BE SURE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OUTLOOK...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RETURN TO QUASI-
ZONAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND SUB-
FREEZING H8 TEMPERATURES KEEPING ANY LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION AS STRICTLY SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY SNOW, BUT CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES IS LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
SNOWPACK REMAINING AFTER THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SNOW FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AT THE LEAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED SO FAR THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING
SEEN AT CIU AND APN, AND MAY WORK INTO TVC AND PLN AT TIMES THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR TAF SITES SOUTH
OF THE BRIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WEAK WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING 10-15KTS LATER TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
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