280
FXUS63 KAPX 162325
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MELTING
SNOWPACK.
-COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND A SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGS BACK GUSTY WINDS, SHARPLY COLDER AIR, LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE BUDDING STAGES OF A "THAW" ARE SHOWING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE MICHIGAN SEEING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES POKING ABOVE FREEZING (MBL, FKX, SJX). ANTICIPATING
THESE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO POKE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER AS MARINE INFLUENCES FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN HELP REINFORCE THIS MILDER AIR INTRUSION. ZONAL
FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO KEEP LARGER SYSTEMS AT BAY FOR THE TIME
BEING, BUT STILL SUPPLYING US WITH JUST ENOUGH VORTICITY AND
LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH STUBBORN WAA DRIVEN MOISTURE
INTRUSION... OVER THE TOP OF AN IMPRESSIVE MID DECEMBER SNOWPACK
THAT STRETCHES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI TO
THE OHIO VALLEY... TO BRING A PERIOD OF UNPLEASANT, NEBULOUS
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH... JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BENEATH A HUGE INVERSION ALOFT TO FORCE
SOME SHOWERS... MIXED WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SLEET... THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY
THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE / PLAIN
DRIZZLE. AS SUCH, ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE REGION TO HOLD IN
THIS DRIZZLY / SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH TOMORROW... BUT ISSUES
ARISE WITH P-TYPES AS WE SWING BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT, AND
BUMP BACK UP TO NEAR / ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE AREA ROADS THAT SOFTEN / SLUSH UP LIKELY
FACING A REFREEZE LATER TONIGHT ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL, WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR SOME ISSUES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IF INSTEAD OF SNOW FLURRIES, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DGZ PROMOTES MORE DRIZZLE / FREEZING
DRIZZLE. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS IS EASTERN UPPER, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT, THE STRAITS, AND THE INTERIOR TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER, WHERE SOUNDINGS HOLD THE MOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
INTO TONIGHT. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF AN ADVISORY FOR ICING IN
EASTERN UPPER, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY HOLDING ABOVE
32 UNTIL LATER TONIGHT, THERE'S JUST NOT ENOUGH THERE TO FORCE
THE PUSHING OF THE BIG RED BUTTON. NONETHELESS... SOUNDINGS DO
SHOWCASE A DIP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE RESATURATING AND BRINGING BACK
DRIZZLY WEATHER LATER TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING (SEE LONG
TERM).
IT'S A HALLMARK OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN... EVEN WHEN WE ARE
THAWING OUT, THERE'S STILL PROBLEMS TO BE HAD. LOWS TONIGHT DIP
INTO THE 20S LATE, AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID
30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE "THAW" CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY... WITH DRIZZLE CARRYING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS WITH
STRONG RETURN FLOW. WE FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE 40S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WAVE. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM'S PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
RAIN THURSDAY, THOUGH FLOODING CONCERNS SEEM MEAGER AT BEST
CONSIDERING QPF LIKELY HOLDS BELOW 0.25" DURING RAINFALL. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM... AS THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE CLEARS, ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SURGES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES... TAKING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PRESENT TWO DISTINCT HAZARDS FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES... FLASH FREEZE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE TABLE FOR AREA THOROUGHFARES THAT FAIL
TO DRY OUT OR SUFFICIENTLY MELT OFF SNOW. IN ADDITION, THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL GENERATE A LAKE RESPONSE, WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCOMPANYING 30 TO 35MPH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FROM A DISTANCE, THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
LOOKS SUBOPTIMAL TO SAY THE LEAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELTS.
A QUICK BOUT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WHICH IS BEING HANDLED EXCEPTIONALLY POORLY
BY GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. AT SOME POINT, THIS WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION (SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT FRIDAY NIGHT, OTHERS HAVE
IT SATURDAY NIGHT), WHICH COULD DELIVER ANOTHER SWATH OF SNOW TO THE
REGION. THOUGH WITH AN INCREASED WARMTH PLUME ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS, AREAS SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA (WHEREVER THAT MAY BE) COULD
EASILY SEE WINTRY MIX / RAIN STICK ITS NOSE INTO THE PICTURE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
OVERHEAD, AND WITH PACIFIC SYSTEMS CRESTING A ROCKIES CENTERED
RIDGE, THIS WOULD PUT THE SYSTEM TRACK RIGHT OVERHEAD... SO
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER... THOUGH WITH
GUIDANCE AS UNCERTAIN WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, ONE GETS THE
IMPRESSION THAT WE MAY BE PLAYING "PIN THE TAIL ON THE DONKEY"
FOR A LITTLE BIT BEFORE A CLEARER PICTURE IS PAINTED. ONE THING
I WILL SAY... THIS PATTERN IS NOT NECESSARILY WARM NOR COLD...
BUT LOOKS TO PROBABLY HAVE A "SEE-SAW" TYPE EFFECT WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TIMEFRAME.
GENERALLY WHEN THINGS LIKE THIS HAPPEN, SNOW IS CERTAINLY STILL
POSSIBLE. HOPEFULLY WE DON'T GET TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG AND CAN
KEEP A WORKABLE SNOWPACK FOR A PIVOTAL ECONOMIC TIMEFRAME FOR
AREA BUSINESSES THAT LEAN ON WINTER RECREATION. THE UNFORTUNATE
PART IS THAT WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE TO GET THAT ANSWER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
EXPECTING CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF
LOCATION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE AND
SCATTER OUT SOME. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THOSE LOWER CIGS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT KCIU. DESPITE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT, DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. WIND SHEAR DOES END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SLOWLY DECREASING IN SPEED IN THE PROCESS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB
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