317
FXUS63 KAPX 170810
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING & LATER TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLY MILD ON THURSDAY WITH MELTING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
- COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, SNOW
CHANCES, PERHAPS A FLASH FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES ACROSS ~QUEBEC. THUS, FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS,
MIXED IN WITH SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EITHER. ANY SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD IN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ND-MN BORDER WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE,
WITH WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THUS, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE MOIST AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LEVELS
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. TOUGH TO SAY IF IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FZDZ THOUGH
AS TEMPS LIKELY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. NEVERTHELESS, AT THE
VERY LEAST AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED, PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY.
ONLY CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SLICK
ROADS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
DAY 2-3 (THURSDAY - FRIDAY):
NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY - FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. ROBUST UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. INITIALLY,
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN MI, AND
THUS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST AREAS THANKS TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS (BREEZY WINDS MIGHT STRUGGLE A LITTLE DURING
THE DAY THOUGH). RAIN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY AS WELL, NOT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT, LARGELY UNDER 0.25". CONSEQUENTLY, GIVEN THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK, MELTING POTENTIAL, AND LACK OF CONSIDERABLE QPF IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY, THIS SHOULD NOT BE A HUGE DEAL IN REGARDS TO
HYDRO/FLOOD PRODUCTS. BUT WORTH MONITORING REAL TIME OBVIOUSLY.
COLD FRONT WILL BURST THROUGH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET, BUT WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO SHARPLY FALL, LIKELY DEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY,
WIND GUSTS INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND COULD
BE RATHER STRONG, FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AT LEAST 30-40
MPH, WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN SPOTS. THIS WILL
POSE A FLASH FREEZE RISK AS WELL, TO SOME EXTENT, LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING.
NOT REALLY SURE HOW MUCH STANDING WATER THERE WILL BE, ON THE
MAJOR ROADWAYS ANYWAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELTS, BUT HAZARDS WILL COMPOUND NOT ONLY
BECAUSE OF THE FLASH FREEZE RISK BUT THE BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS. THUS, IMPACTFUL SNOWS AND WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR NW-NNW SNOWBELTS. NORTHWEST
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME.
DAYS 4-7 (SATURDAY - TUESDAY):
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENS GUIDANCE
50TH PERCENTILE 24 HOUR SNOWFALL (CULMINATION OF EPS, GEFS, GEPS)
SUGGESTS ~1-3" OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM POTENTIAL (10-50%) FOR 3"+ ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. INFLUX OF TRANSIENTLY COLDER AIR DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID, HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A QUICK MODERATING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS CIGS RISE AND SCATTER OUT SOME.
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THOSE LOWER CIGS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCIU. LINGERING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, THIS DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE
WINDS VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY, SLOWLY DECREASING IN
SPEED IN THE PROCESS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
RETURN THIS EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LHZ345>348.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
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