631
FXUS63 KAPX 180448
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- SEASONABLY MILD ON THURSDAY WITH MELTING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
- SHARPLY COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SNOW CHANCES, PERHAPS A FLASH FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: THE LATEST IN OUR RECENT SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOISTEN AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS.
FORECAST DETAILS: STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT
AND VEERING MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
STARTS TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (40-50 KT
WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK), BUT GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKES HAS
ON ONSHORE COMPONENT TO IT.
THE STRONG DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY MOISTEN THE DRY AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTENING TAKES PLACE, PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ANY
DRIZZLE THAT FALLS MAY BE FREEZING DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
BUT THANKFULLY THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS
PRETTY MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: CLIPPER IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DEPART THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE CLIPPER "TRAIN"
CONTINUES, WITH OTHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THESE CLIPPERS WILL NOT BE TAPPING
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THEM AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
BELOW FREEZING IN THEIR WAKE.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE THREAT OF A FLASH FREEZE EXISTS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP
INTO THE TEENS FROM THE 40S THAT HAD BEEN SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. ICY PATCHES ON ROADS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND FALLING
SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRICKY TRAVEL FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND CAN CERTAINLY SEE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BECOMING NECESSARY WHERE THE BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE BETTER ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT WILL TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS SURROUND THE LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY CLIPPERS, BUT NEITHER OF THESE
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCERS. IT APPEARS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT CLOSE TO OR ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLDER
AND WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS NOT A GREAT SET UP
FOR WINTER SPORTS ENTHUSIASTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE
YEAR HOLIDAY PERIOD AS PERIODIC SNOW MELT WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS HEADING THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, TRANSITIONING RAIN TO WIND-DRIVEN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING SOUTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY HEADING THROUGH TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...MSB
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