295
FXUS63 KAPX 181724
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NON-ZERO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS EARLY MORNING.
- SEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH MELTING SNOW AND RAIN.
- COLDER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, SNOW, AND THE THREAT
FOR A FLASH FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY, DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE, WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (40S FOR MOST). DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS, FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POORLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AND THUS, STRONG
WINDS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SFC. SO, WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH A STIFF SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND, EXPECT AN
INCONSISTENT NATURE TO ANY GUSTS. THE WINDIER PERIOD WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DUE TO THE WARM AND
MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH. PRIOR TO THIS, VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE AS A DEEP AND SATURATED LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE OVERLAPS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS TEMPS
RISE QUICKLY, OR PERHAPS EVEN REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, GENERALLY EXPECT A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY FOR MOST, LOCALLY HIGHER IN SPOTS. THIS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CURRENT SNOWPACK, BUT WORTH MONITORING
THROUGH THE DAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD AND THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS OOZES IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS, ANY RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO LAKE ENHANCED AND EFFECT
SNOWS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE, MEANING
ANY STANDING LIQUID WILL QUICKLY FREEZE MAKING FOR SLICK
ROADWAYS. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY OPTIMAL PERIOD FOR EFFICIENT SNOW
GIVEN THE STRONG DPVA FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST, WITH
PLENTY OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LAKE ENHANCED
SOUNDINGS AND A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW OF DEEP DGZ DEPTHS. COULD
SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST OF
I-75, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INTO FRIDAY.
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO MIXING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS, LATER TONIGHT, EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 40
MPH WIND GUSTS. COMBINE THESE WIND GUSTS WITH FALLING SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CARRY
OVER, AND MAXIMIZE, ON FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY THINKING OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ~I-75 AND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, +/- A FEW COUNTIES. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW (~2 OR MORE INCHES), ALONG WITH THE OTHER
COMPOUNDING HAZARDS LIKE STRONG WINDS/LOW VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW
AND FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL. WENT QUITE LIBERAL WITH THE
ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE MULTIPLE HAZARDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
DAY 2-3 (FRIDAY - SATURDAY):
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW AND ANY ICY
ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WIND GUSTS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, PEAK VALUES APPROACHING 45 MPH IN
SPOTS. WIND ADVISORY CONSIDERATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE COMING SHIFTS.
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS NW SNOWBELTS, BUT THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MOST LOCATIONS. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE
~2-5" ACROSS THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED REGIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST. ROBUST SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WORKING INTO NORTHERN MI. BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL (10-50%) FOR >3" OF SNOW
WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE E UP. EXPECT
A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
DAYS 4-7 (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY):
INFLUX OF TRANSIENTLY COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MACHINE THROUGH THE DAY
FOR NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RISING HEIGHTS LEADING TO A "WARMING" TREND (MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
HIGHS MONDAY, PROBABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS. EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH
CIGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, TRANSITIONING
RAIN TO WIND- DRIVEN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY VEERING
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
ALL SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...NSC
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