747
FXUS63 KAPX 190414
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1114 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC FRONT WITH FLASH FREEZE LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING.
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND LOW VISIBILITY. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED POWER
OUTAGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT,
SWINGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING. WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH FROPA, WITH THE
MAIN CORE OF COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
SLUSH OR SNOW ON SIDE ROADS OR PARKING LOTS WILL FREEZE UP
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN SOME AREAS. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A PRECIPITATION
"LULL" FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE INTIAL FROPA AND THE SNOW,
WITH SNOW COVERAGE INCREASING QUICKLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY OPTIMAL SNOW EFFICIENCY
PARAMETERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-75, WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING PEGGED THROUGH A DEEP
DGZ PRODUCING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST AREAS, WITH 2-3" OF
ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO BRING THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN MANY AREAS
LATE WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, CREATING AREAS OF VERY LOW
(WHITEOUT AT TIMES) VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER
NORTHWEST. SMALLER FLAKE SIZE AND OVERALL LESS EFFICIENT SNOW
PARAMETERS AS CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EVENTUALLY PUSHES
THE MOISTURE PROFILE OUTSIDE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE DGZ. DESPITE
ACCUMULATIONS BEING LIMITED, THE SMALLER FLAKE SIZE COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS, WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH LOW
VISIBILITY (WHITEOUTS AT TIMES) DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL BRING 45KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND FOR A TIME, PUSHING THE
ACTIVITY EAST OF I-75. OVERALL, EXPECT POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW BEGINS
TO DIMINISH AND THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SITTING IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
AND MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH, NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE
CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY
BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA
AS WE HEAD TOWARD CHRISTMAS, POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL ON MOST DAYS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS A FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA, TURNING WINDS TO WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG ON ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW KICKS IN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING -- AROUND 08-09Z ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED TO PERIODIC DROPS IN
VISIBILITY SHORTLY AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME, WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z WHERE DROPS TO 1/4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WITH STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-
20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-35KTS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJC
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