628
FXUS63 KAPX 191718
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1218 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY, THEN HOVERING NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF SWINGING ON THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT AND ENHANCED SNOWS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS. DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW,
AND ANY RESIDUAL ICY ROADWAYS WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS MORNING
COMMUTE, AND TOUGH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE (ISOLATED HIGHER
PEAK GUSTS) THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ELECTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY
GIVEN THE SOUNDINGS AND SOME PROGGED WIND GUST FIELDS, POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, AND A HEADS UP FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY WINTER HEADLINES. EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW BELTS
WEST OF I-75, FOR A STORM TOTAL OF ~2-4/2-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. MOISTURE QUALITY IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY, WITH ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW WANING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY, WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF WELL OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH QUICKLY
RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST, WITH SNOW LIKELY
FALLING BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM AS WELL. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW BELOW ON THE
SATURDAY SNOW.
ANY SHSN WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIFR IF IT
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
DAY 2-3 (SATURDAY - SUNDAY):
NEXT SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WILL BE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MI. BEST AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UP, WHERE THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR ~2-4" OF
SNOW. LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MICH, ~1-2"
IN SPOTS. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY BUT TURN QUITE WINDY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (PERHAPS THE MOST
IMPORTANT HAZARD TO KEEP AN EYE ON). ANY MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO SUNDAY. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT ON SUNDAY FOR THE TIME
BEING (A FEW INCHES ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER, MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN
EASTERN UPPER), BUT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW WHERE STRONG WINDS
COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO CAUSE SOME DISRUPTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE 10S AND
20S ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DAYS 4-7 (MONDAY - THURSDAY):
AFTER THE COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, MILDER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THUS,
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO HOVER AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL SO THERE
WILL BE OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK. COULD THERE BE A BRIEF COLD FRONT IN THERE AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY, BUT THE OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE KEEP
THE REGION WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO CARRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, LARGELY TAPERING IN INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING. LARGELY MVFR TO BRIEF IFR TO CONTINUE PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY SHSN WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIFR IF IT
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITE. GUSTY WNW TO NW WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF MARGINAL MVFR TO VFR
THIS EVENING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS TURN S TO SSE
LATER TONIGHT, QUICKLY PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUILDS. SN RETURNS TO THE PICTURE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING BACK MORE FIRMLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, WITH GREATER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES WITH RESPECT TO THE TAF SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ086.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD
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