095
FXUS63 KAPX 192023
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TAPERING INTO THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/BLUSTERY WINDS LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
- A THAW IS LIKELY BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS TRENDING WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
LAST HOUR. STILL SOME RESPECTABLE SNOW/WIND COMBO IMPACTS (PLN
AND CIU HAVE BOTH 1/2SM RECENTLY, WITH MOST OF THAT VSBY
REDUCTION FROM BLOWING RATHER THAN FALLING SNOW). BUT THOSE
SITES ARE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE (AND HAVE SHOWN VERY
RECENT IMPROVEMENT). WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING
INTO THIS EVENING (AND ABRUPTLY BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT). THE
WINTER WX HEADLINES CAN PROBABLY DROP OFF AT 4PM. WIND ADVISORY
WILL STAY UP, THOUGH CONCERNS LINGER MAINLY IN NE LOWER MI (APN
GUSTED TO 42 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR).
BACKING WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION, INITIALLY MORE SO
AT 850MB THAN AT THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C IN NW LOWER
MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT, AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT RETURNS TO NORTHERN MI, MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF M-72, OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. POPS/SNOW WILL BE
HIGHEST THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. 2-4" EXPECTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, UP TO 3" NORTHERN LOWER (HIGHEST IN THE
TIP OF THE MITT).
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS NEAR
THE SAULT), AND RELATIVELY EARLY. TEMPS RISE A BIT LATE TONIGHT.
HIGHS SATURDAY NEAR 30F TO THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
ROLLER COASTER TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT BEYOND.
QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING.
BEHIND THAT, A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
THAT PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. BUT THE MAIN STORY IS (AFTER THAT
CLIPPER DEPARTS) STEADILY BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA (EXCEPTING THE WEST COAST). IN THE INTERIM, SHARPLY
COLDER AIR MAKES ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BUT WE QUICKLY RECOVER OUT OF THAT,
WITH MONDAY A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS KICKS IN TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE CLIPPER SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE EXITING SAT EVENING. WNW-
FLOW (NORTHERN LOWER) OR NW-FLOW (EASTERN UP) KICKS IN BEHIND THAT
THOUGH, AS 850MB TEMPS TUMBLE SOME 5-15C JUST EARLY SAT NIGHT.
BLUSTERY SURFACE WINDS AS WELL AGAIN SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DRAMATICALLY DURING THE DAY. MAIN
CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE IN THE EASTERN
UP, WITH A LONGER FETCH AND DEEPER MOISTURE PRODUCING BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. 1-3" SNOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
SEEM A POSSIBILITY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CHIP CO. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING, AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF CORE, WILL ALLOW SNOWS
TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY-MON NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE WARMING/MOISTENING AIR LATE IN THE WEEK (BEGINNING CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT) COULD HAVE A DRIZZLY COMPONENT AT TIMES (SAW PLENTY OF THAT
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS). PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE PUSH
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, ANY P-TYPE IS LIQUID LATE THIS WEEK.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY 20F TO THE MID 20S, THEN RECOVERING INTO THE 30S OR
WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO CARRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, LARGELY TAPERING IN INTENSITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING. LARGELY MVFR TO BRIEF IFR TO CONTINUE PREVAILING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY SHSN WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIFR IF IT
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITE. GUSTY WNW TO NW WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF MARGINAL MVFR TO VFR
THIS EVENING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS TURN S TO SSE
LATER TONIGHT, QUICKLY PICKING UP IN INTENSITY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUILDS. SN RETURNS TO THE PICTURE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING BACK MORE FIRMLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, WITH GREATER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES WITH RESPECT TO THE TAF SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031-032-099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...HAD
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