737
FXUS63 KAPX 210505
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRIEF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A COUPLE TENTHS UP TO AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN LOWER AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES
- THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE IN. ONLY A FEW SPOTS OF WEAK REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN,
WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS EVEN DRIER AIR OVER WI
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS MI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
SOME MOISTURE IS EVIDENT FARTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER TROUGH
(NORTHERN MI/ LK SUPERIOR AN CAN). THESE DIFFERENCES IN
AIRMASSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER EASTERN UPPER (MAINLY NORTH OF M-28) AND LESS CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL STILL SWING THROUGH, ALLOWING CAA TO MARCH THROUGH NORTHERN MI
AND BRING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 45 MPH OVER
LAND AND STRONGER OVER WATER) TONIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
SEEN NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO IDEAL WIND DIRECTION AND
FUNNELING DOWN THE BAY. DUE TO THE STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
FIELDS AND COLD LL TEMP PROFILES, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER - WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
SNOWBELT. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LONGER DURATION OF IDEAL LL
TEMP PROFILES OVER EASTERN UPPER, AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL FALL
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF +6"
POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
FOR EASTERN UPPER, AND THIS PAIRED WITH TIMES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITIES.
LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT
AS WELL, HOWEVER SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AND MOST
OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS A GLAZE OF ICE OVER IT FROM RECENT RAINS
THIS PAST WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TIMES OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
UNDER MODERATE SNOW AND NEAR AREAS OF DISTURBED SNOWPACK.
LL RIDGING WILL WORK TO WARM THOSE LL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
OVER NORTHERN LOWER. THIS WILL DECREASE THE TEMP DIFFERENCES OVER
THE LAKES AND THEREFORE DIMINISH AND REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE CLUSTERS OR FRAGMENTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN UPPER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
WINDS TURN SOUTH EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM SECTOR STARTS TO PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME IDEAL UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS (LEFT EXIT EARLY MONDAY THEN RIGHT ENTRANCE LATE
MONDAY) MOVES OVER NORTHERN MI AND COULD FORCE SOME WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE CORE
OF THE WARMER AIR. SOME SLIGHT ELEVATED FGEN COULD BE AT PLAY AS
WELL, HOWEVER THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT BY LOW/WEAK LAPSE RATES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
ALL IN ALL, HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ONLY A COUPLE INCHES IN
TOTAL FALLING ON MONDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH EVEN SOME
CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
SOME SPOTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN
LATE WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, HOWEVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL REACH NORTHERN
MI CHRISTMAS DAY RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 40S AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30-40KTS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9Z BEFORE TAPERING TO 25-35KTS...AND EVENTUALLY
DROPPING BACK UNDER 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 10-
20KTS REMAIN WNW TO NW TONIGHT WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO SLOWLY
SINK S ACROSS THE EUP, EXITING N LOWER MI BETWEEN 12-15Z, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KTS OR LESS...THEN SHIFTING BACK TO
W THROUGH 18Z AND TO SW/SSW THROUGH 0Z AND BEYOND. EXPECT PREVAILING
MVFR AT ALL SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS AFTER 18Z, MOSTLY CIGS GIVEN LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW AT
MBL, TVC, APN. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS CIU/PLN
AFTER 21Z OR SO. PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY AT CIU/PLN WHICH HAVE BEST
SHOT AT HITTING BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THRU 12-15Z; COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT CIU IF BAND GETS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THERE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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