844
FXUS63 KAPX 211121
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
621 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
-WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED MIXED PRECIP CHANCES.
-CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AND PERIODIC LIGHT MIXED PRECIP CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED MIDLEVEL TROUGHING WITH A STRONG JET
MAXIMA CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRADDLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. YESTERDAYS EMBEDDED TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY,
EXTENDING AN ATTACHED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND KEEPING CHANCES OF CONTINUED SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CWA.
FORECAST DETAILS...
TODAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM, LOWERING PGF WINDS THIS MORNING AND DRAWING MORE MILD
WEATHER FROM THE WEST. BREEZY WINDS IN THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S WILL TAPER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DRY CP AIR KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND SLOWLY SCOURS CLOUD COVER. MOST PARTS OF
THE CWA REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT LOW LEVEL MARGINAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER
AND NE PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER
REMAIN PRECIP FREE TODAY. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW TENTHS OF
SNOWFALL (AT MOST) WILL BE ISOLATED PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTHERN LOWER
AND NE LOCATIONS ALONG PRESQUE ISLE AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH BETTER FETCH LAKE ALONG SUPERIOR WILL DELIVER
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF M-28 WITHIN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. AGAIN,
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THE
DAY, BUT LOCALIZED PARTS OF NORTHERN CHIPPEWA NEAR THE SOO AND
WHITEFISH POINT CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A
BRIEF DRY AND QUIET PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WINDS CALM AND
BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT IN THE MID/LOW TEENS
AND BEGIN TO WARM TO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY 12Z MONDAY. UPSTREAM
STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE HOURS OF THE SHORT
TERM, A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE MICHIGAN SHORELINE (LEELANAU, BENZIE, MANISTEE) WHILE
OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA WILL OBSERVE ADDITIONAL SNOW THIS MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND DELIVER LIGHT STRATIFORM SNOWFALL
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MILD AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A GENERAL HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF
ACCUMULATIONS. HI-REZ GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION TO CREATE ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST LIKELIHOODS OF A WARM NOSE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN REMAIN ALONG THE MICHIGAN SHORELINES
ALONG WITH THE STRAITS WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATION PROBS REMAINING
NEAR A GLAZE OF ICE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OUTLOOK...WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING A PATTERN OF SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
30S THIS WEEK) AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP REMAIN ON FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HIGHEST PROBS OF RAINFALL REMAIN BELOW THE
BRIDGE WHILE EASTERN UPPER REMAINS MOSTLY SNOW ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
MIXED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG PARTS OF THE CWA. TOO EARLY TO GIVE EXACT
DETAILS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURES AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BACK UNDER 15-20KTS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 15KTS, MORE
NOTICEABLY ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. THE MIXED BAG OF MVFR/ VFR
CURRENT CONIDTIONS WILL MAKE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AFTER 18Z AND
TREND VFR BY TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
CHANCES MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNDER THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW IF THEY WIGGLE OVERHEAD A TERMINAL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ086.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...NSC
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